{"source":"manifold","id":"0R6LMayBa8uJjDUoU7Ki","ticker":null,"slug":"will-gpt5-have-over-1-trillion-para","title":"Will GPT-5 have over 1 trillion parameters?","description":"This market resolves YES if the initial GPT-5 model, when released by OpenAI, was trained with over 1 trillion parameters, otherwise it will resolve NO.\n\nIf OpenAI ceases to exist, publicly confirms there will not be a GPT-5, or it hasn't been released by 2030, this market resolves NA. If OpenAI is acquired or merges, \"OpenAI\" refers to the new company.\n\n\"Initial GPT-5 model\" refers to the first release of GPT-5 by OpenAI, not including subsequent updates, variants, or distillations:\n\nDistillations: If GPT-5 has variants that are distilled into having fewer parameters, these do not affect the market resolution.\n\nSubsequent variants: If new variants in the GPT-5 series are trained with more parameters after the initial release, these do not count toward the resolution.\n\nNaming: GPT-5 must be publicly recognized as such by OpenAI. If it is called \"GPT-5\" internally, but has a public name like GPT-4.5, it doesn't count.\n\nIf OpenAI trains multiple GPT-5 variants but staggers their releases, any of them is acceptable as long as they are announced together.\n\nConfirmation of the number of parameters in the initial GPT-5 model must come from an official source, such as:\n\nOpenAI or Microsoft\n\nCurrent or former executives of OpenAI or Microsoft\n\nCurrent or former employees of OpenAI or Microsoft directly involved in the development of GPT-5\n\nA journalist can serve as an acceptable proxy for an official source, provided that:\n\nThe information clearly originates from an official source.\n\nThe information is not based on rumors or unofficial statements.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FpNmc8zR7nA.png?alt=media&token=08d9852c-cc9c-4f0b-8909-1053c7a74806","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-31T20:47:09.342000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T09:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5637.73942337686,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.975183486938477,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.898803,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will GPT-5 have over 1 trillion parameters?","top_outcome_probability":0.898803,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-75.2836146563837,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T22:23:04.141271Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T22:23:04.141271Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Mira/will-gpt5-have-over-1-trillion-para","chart_24h":[0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"0R6LMayBa8uJjDUoU7Ki","event_id":"0R6LMayBa8uJjDUoU7Ki","slug":"will-gpt5-have-over-1-trillion-para","question":"Will GPT-5 have over 1 trillion parameters?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market resolves YES if the initial GPT-5 model, when released by OpenAI, was trained with over 1 trillion parameters, otherwise it will resolve NO.\n\nIf OpenAI ceases to exist, publicly confirms there will not be a GPT-5, or it hasn't been released by 2030, this market resolves NA. If OpenAI is acquired or merges, \"OpenAI\" refers to the new company.\n\n\"Initial GPT-5 model\" refers to the first release of GPT-5 by OpenAI, not including subsequent updates, variants, or distillations:\n\nDistillations: If GPT-5 has variants that are distilled into having fewer parameters, these do not affect the market resolution.\n\nSubsequent variants: If new variants in the GPT-5 series are trained with more parameters after the initial release, these do not count toward the resolution.\n\nNaming: GPT-5 must be publicly recognized as such by OpenAI. If it is called \"GPT-5\" internally, but has a public name like GPT-4.5, it doesn't count.\n\nIf OpenAI trains multiple GPT-5 variants but staggers their releases, any of them is acceptable as long as they are announced together.\n\nConfirmation of the number of parameters in the initial GPT-5 model must come from an official source, such as:\n\nOpenAI or Microsoft\n\nCurrent or former executives of OpenAI or Microsoft\n\nCurrent or former employees of OpenAI or Microsoft directly involved in the development of GPT-5\n\nA journalist can serve as an acceptable proxy for an official source, provided that:\n\nThe information clearly originates from an official source.\n\nThe information is not based on rumors or unofficial statements.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FpNmc8zR7nA.png?alt=media&token=08d9852c-cc9c-4f0b-8909-1053c7a74806","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.898803,0.101197],"probability":0.898803,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-31T20:47:09.342000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T09:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5637.73942337686,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-75.2836146563837,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.975183486938477,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T22:21:55.076983Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T22:21:55.076983Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Mira/will-gpt5-have-over-1-trillion-para","event_title":"Will GPT-5 have over 1 trillion parameters?","chart_24h":[0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803,0.898803]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/0R6LMayBa8uJjDUoU7Ki","as_of":"2026-07-25T23:14:26.272500Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will GPT-5 have over 1 trillion parameters?\" — top market at 90% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}