{"source":"manifold","id":"0XpwaIfuZ7xSfCY1TpDg","ticker":null,"slug":"will-there-be-a-civil-war-violent-r","title":"Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?","description":"We've seen a drastic shift in the US politicalsphere from 2010's to 2020's. How drastic do you think things can go? \n\n \n\nAll baby boomers would have reached retirement age by around 2030. \n\nThis will resolve in \"yes\" if the US army is mobilized to deal with domestic terrorism or part of government. Resolves in \"no\" otherwise.\n\nUpdate 2024-31-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:\n\nDeployment of the US Army to deal with domestic terrorism or part of the government → Yes\n\nDeployment of the National Guard to deal with political unrest or enforce martial law only if they are serving the federal government's dictates → Yes\n\nOtherwise → No\n\nUpdate 2025-03-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Clarification Definitions:\n\nEvent Type: The market now only considers a revolution or civil war.\n\nObjective: The event must aim at controlling the country, achieving regional independence, or changing government policy.\n\nDuration: The event must span at least one month.\n\nCasualty Threshold: There must be a minimum of 1000 confirmed deaths by year end.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T17:43:59.936000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6437.452637112144,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.873001098632812,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.23829,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.23829,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/LegendaryFoatGucker/will-there-be-a-civil-war-violent-r","chart_24h":[0.23829,0.23829],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"0XpwaIfuZ7xSfCY1TpDg","event_id":"0XpwaIfuZ7xSfCY1TpDg","slug":"will-there-be-a-civil-war-violent-r","question":"Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"We've seen a drastic shift in the US politicalsphere from 2010's to 2020's. How drastic do you think things can go? \n\n \n\nAll baby boomers would have reached retirement age by around 2030. \n\nThis will resolve in \"yes\" if the US army is mobilized to deal with domestic terrorism or part of government. Resolves in \"no\" otherwise.\n\nUpdate 2024-31-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:\n\nDeployment of the US Army to deal with domestic terrorism or part of the government → Yes\n\nDeployment of the National Guard to deal with political unrest or enforce martial law only if they are serving the federal government's dictates → Yes\n\nOtherwise → No\n\nUpdate 2025-03-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Clarification Definitions:\n\nEvent Type: The market now only considers a revolution or civil war.\n\nObjective: The event must aim at controlling the country, achieving regional independence, or changing government policy.\n\nDuration: The event must span at least one month.\n\nCasualty Threshold: There must be a minimum of 1000 confirmed deaths by year end.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.23829,0.76171],"probability":0.23829,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-14T17:43:59.936000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6437.452637112144,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.873001098632812,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/LegendaryFoatGucker/will-there-be-a-civil-war-violent-r","event_title":"Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?","chart_24h":[0.23829,0.23829]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/0XpwaIfuZ7xSfCY1TpDg","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:16:10.320186Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?\" — top market at 24% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}