{"source":"manifold","id":"0ctP22gzlp","ticker":"0ctP22gzlp","slug":"eu-dissolves-before","title":"EU dissolves in ....?","description":"Politics / News\n\nUpdate 2025-12-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on when the EU dissolves (i.e., \"dissolves in\" a specific year), not whether it dissolves before a certain date. This is a multiple choice market where after one answer resolves YES, all others resolve NO.\n\nUpdate 2025-12-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve before 2050 if the EU dissolves prior to the close date, or at the close date (2050) if it has not dissolved by then.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FIZzluu6QpP.JPG?alt=media&token=2b392974-6293-4b2b-9593-16a3a9a02c11","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-10T10:39:00.418000Z","end_date":"2050-12-31T10:37:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":31321.78389106117,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.687400817871094,"liquidity":2450.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["World","Culture","Politics"],"tags":["world-default","news","culture-default","politics-default","europe"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Other","top_outcome_probability":0.509532,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-05T18:14:05.484299Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-05T18:14:05.484299Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lacause/eu-dissolves-before","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"tunEZsLEgU","event_id":"0ctP22gzlp","slug":null,"question":"Other","group_item_title":"Other","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.509532,0.490468],"probability":0.509532,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-10T10:39:00.418000Z","end_date":"2050-12-31T10:37:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":19597.479626636337,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.173580169677734,"liquidity":424.3083025243104,"categories":["World","Culture","Politics"],"countries":["European Union"],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T22:52:10.277129Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T22:51:59.833930Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lacause/eu-dissolves-before","event_title":"EU dissolves in ....?","chart_24h":[0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532,0.509532]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qLgIPzS62I","event_id":"0ctP22gzlp","slug":null,"question":"2035-2040","group_item_title":"2035-2040","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.112131,0.887869],"probability":0.112131,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-10T10:39:00.418000Z","end_date":"2050-12-31T10:37:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2595.3148107438556,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.889957427978516,"liquidity":250.00000000000003,"categories":["World","Culture","Politics"],"countries":["European Union"],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T22:52:10.277129Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T22:51:59.833930Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lacause/eu-dissolves-before","event_title":"EU dissolves in ....?","chart_24h":[0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131,0.112131]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9OhzCSUQS5","event_id":"0ctP22gzlp","slug":null,"question":"2030-2035","group_item_title":"2030-2035","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.111315,0.888685],"probability":0.111315,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-10T10:39:00.418000Z","end_date":"2050-12-31T10:37:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5819.401584088733,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.832111358642578,"liquidity":250.00000000000003,"categories":["World","Culture","Politics"],"countries":["European Union"],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T22:52:10.277129Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T22:51:59.833930Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lacause/eu-dissolves-before","event_title":"EU dissolves in ....?","chart_24h":[0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315,0.111315]},{"source":"manifold","id":"EshRuS0QIu","event_id":"0ctP22gzlp","slug":null,"question":"2040-2045","group_item_title":"2040-2045","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.11,0.89],"probability":0.11,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-10T10:39:00.418000Z","end_date":"2050-12-31T10:37:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1438.547820202369,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":19.584545135498047,"liquidity":250.00000000000003,"categories":["World","Culture","Politics"],"countries":["European Union"],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T22:52:10.277129Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T22:51:59.833930Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lacause/eu-dissolves-before","event_title":"EU dissolves in ....?","chart_24h":[0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8UpN8dIp2I","event_id":"0ctP22gzlp","slug":null,"question":"2045-2050","group_item_title":"2045-2050","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.081356,0.918644],"probability":0.081356,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-10T21:52:37.539000Z","end_date":"2050-12-31T10:37:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":861.5374336459627,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.922847747802734,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["World","Culture","Politics"],"countries":["European Union"],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T22:52:10.277129Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T22:51:59.833930Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lacause/eu-dissolves-before","event_title":"EU dissolves in ....?","chart_24h":[0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356,0.081356]},{"source":"manifold","id":"yZQP2zs9sp","event_id":"0ctP22gzlp","slug":null,"question":"2025-2030","group_item_title":"2025-2030","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.075666,0.924334],"probability":0.075666,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-10T10:39:00.418000Z","end_date":"2050-12-31T10:37:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1009.5026157439049,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.724838256835938,"liquidity":250.00000000000003,"categories":["World","Culture","Politics"],"countries":["European Union"],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T22:52:10.277129Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T22:51:59.833930Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/lacause/eu-dissolves-before","event_title":"EU dissolves in ....?","chart_24h":[0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666,0.075666]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/0ctP22gzlp","as_of":"2026-09-08T23:01:17.402254Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"EU dissolves in ....?\" — top market at 51% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}