{"source":"manifold","id":"0hNSLyQptC","ticker":null,"slug":"will-any-german-state-prime-ministe","title":"Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?","description":"Resolves based on any State Prime Minister (Ministerpräsident) elections in German state parliaments in 2026, whether after scheduled state elections or otherwise (e.g., a state PM resigning).\n\nResolves YES if AfD MPs vote for a winning candidate AND their votes are necessary for the candidate to win.\n\nResolves NO if all State Prime Ministers elected in 2026 are elected without necessary AfD support.\n\nScheduled 2026 state elections:\n\nBaden-Württemberg (8 March)\n\nRhineland-Palatinate (22 March)\n\nSaxony-Anhalt (6 September)\n\nBerlin (20 September)\n\nMecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 September)\n\nFor these five scheduled elections held in 2026, the subsequent Prime Minister vote counts even if it takes place in 2027.\n\nExample: The only time so far that a prime minister was voted in with necessary votes from the AfD was the election of Thomas Kemmerich (FDP) as State Prime Minister of Thuringia in 2020 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Thuringian_government_crisis).\n\nNote: If votes are secret, resolution will be based on other publicly available information (e.g., coalition agreements, party statements). In ambiguous cases, resolves based on market creator's best judgment.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-07T19:57:12.893000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":42848.43979790722,"volume_24hr":8092.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.83775329589844,"normalized_volume":41.91459655761719,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.79319,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?","top_outcome_probability":0.79319,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.00197500000000006,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":242.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-05T18:55:34.411327Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T18:55:34.411327Z","added_at":"2026-09-16T23:32:58.080912Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-any-german-state-prime-ministe","chart_24h":[0.795165,0.795165,0.795165,0.799113,0.79319],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"0hNSLyQptC","event_id":"0hNSLyQptC","slug":"will-any-german-state-prime-ministe","question":"Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves based on any State Prime Minister (Ministerpräsident) elections in German state parliaments in 2026, whether after scheduled state elections or otherwise (e.g., a state PM resigning).\n\nResolves YES if AfD MPs vote for a winning candidate AND their votes are necessary for the candidate to win.\n\nResolves NO if all State Prime Ministers elected in 2026 are elected without necessary AfD support.\n\nScheduled 2026 state elections:\n\nBaden-Württemberg (8 March)\n\nRhineland-Palatinate (22 March)\n\nSaxony-Anhalt (6 September)\n\nBerlin (20 September)\n\nMecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 September)\n\nFor these five scheduled elections held in 2026, the subsequent Prime Minister vote counts even if it takes place in 2027.\n\nExample: The only time so far that a prime minister was voted in with necessary votes from the AfD was the election of Thomas Kemmerich (FDP) as State Prime Minister of Thuringia in 2020 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Thuringian_government_crisis).\n\nNote: If votes are secret, resolution will be based on other publicly available information (e.g., coalition agreements, party statements). In ambiguous cases, resolves based on market creator's best judgment.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.79319,0.20681],"probability":0.79319,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-07T19:57:12.893000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":42848.43979790722,"volume_24hr":8092.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.00197500000000006,"volume_24h_change":242.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":54.83775329589844,"normalized_volume":41.91459655761719,"liquidity":10000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T18:54:36.439234Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T18:54:36.439234Z","added_at":"2026-09-16T23:32:58.080912Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-any-german-state-prime-ministe","event_title":"Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?","chart_24h":[0.795165,0.795165,0.795165,0.799113,0.79319]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/0hNSLyQptC","as_of":"2026-10-05T18:58:47.035557Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?\" — top market at 79% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}