{"source":"manifold","id":"0pHv0N3QejuVUt5mgFBU","ticker":null,"slug":"will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla-7f519b61e8cf","title":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?","description":"Phrasing here matters, I will count \"P(doom)\" in text, and also things like \"probability of doom\", \"P doom\", \"chance we all die\" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text. I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.\n\nP(doom|something else) is not P(doom).\n\nHe must explicitly specify a number that is less than 50 or that his number is less than 50 for this market to resolve YES.\n\nSame as this market, but 50% and 2040\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tripping/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla)","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Bayesian%2F06c328a5b4c0.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-13T16:54:28.212000Z","end_date":"2040-01-01T12:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18823.42350781998,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.36943435668945,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Mentions"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.2532,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?","top_outcome_probability":0.2532,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla-7f519b61e8cf","chart_24h":[0.2532,0.2532],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"0pHv0N3QejuVUt5mgFBU","event_id":"0pHv0N3QejuVUt5mgFBU","slug":"will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla-7f519b61e8cf","question":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Phrasing here matters, I will count \"P(doom)\" in text, and also things like \"probability of doom\", \"P doom\", \"chance we all die\" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text. I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.\n\nP(doom|something else) is not P(doom).\n\nHe must explicitly specify a number that is less than 50 or that his number is less than 50 for this market to resolve YES.\n\nSame as this market, but 50% and 2040\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tripping/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla)","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Bayesian%2F06c328a5b4c0.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.2532,0.7468],"probability":0.2532,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-13T16:54:28.212000Z","end_date":"2040-01-01T12:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18823.42350781998,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.36943435668945,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Mentions"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla-7f519b61e8cf","event_title":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?","chart_24h":[0.2532,0.2532]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/0pHv0N3QejuVUt5mgFBU","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:13:09.951241Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?\" — top market at 25% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}