{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/0pHv0N3QejuVUt5mgFBU","as_of":"2026-10-24T06:09:54.090050Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?\" — 24% as of 2026-10-11 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/0pHv0N3QejuVUt5mgFBU","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla-7f519b61e8cf"},"source":"manifold","id":"0pHv0N3QejuVUt5mgFBU","ticker":null,"slug":"will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla-7f519b61e8cf","title":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?","description":"Phrasing here matters, I will count \"P(doom)\" in text, and also things like \"probability of doom\", \"P doom\", \"chance we all die\" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text. I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.\n\nP(doom|something else) is not P(doom).\n\nHe must explicitly specify a number that is less than 50 or that his number is less than 50 for this market to resolve YES.\n\nSame as this market, but 50% and 2040\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tripping/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla)","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Bayesian%2F06c328a5b4c0.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-13T16:54:28.212000Z","end_date":"2040-01-01T12:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18873.42350781998,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.65388870239258,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.242412,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?","top_outcome_probability":0.242412,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-11T08:16:11.332414Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-11T08:16:11.332414Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla-7f519b61e8cf","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"0pHv0N3QejuVUt5mgFBU","event_id":"0pHv0N3QejuVUt5mgFBU","slug":"will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla-7f519b61e8cf","question":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Phrasing here matters, I will count \"P(doom)\" in text, and also things like \"probability of doom\", \"P doom\", \"chance we all die\" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text. I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.\n\nP(doom|something else) is not P(doom).\n\nHe must explicitly specify a number that is less than 50 or that his number is less than 50 for this market to resolve YES.\n\nSame as this market, but 50% and 2040\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tripping/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla)","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Bayesian%2F06c328a5b4c0.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.242412,0.757588],"probability":0.242412,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-13T16:54:28.212000Z","end_date":"2040-01-01T12:30:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":18873.42350781998,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":35.65388870239258,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-11T08:15:30.972810Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-11T08:15:30.972810Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla-7f519b61e8cf","event_title":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?","chart_24h":null}]}