{"source":"manifold","id":"0pTKMJQRedeZ5jOTMTu5","ticker":null,"slug":"will-eliezer-yudkowsky-talk-like-a","title":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?","description":"Eliezer uses an idiosyncratic phraseology and tends to assume a lot of shared context from his conversation partner. This works fine with other enfranchised rationalists, but makes it difficult for him to be understood when speaking to a general audience.\n\nFor example, in the Destiny vs. Eliezer debate, Destiny took care to use common words and simple, concise descriptions. Eliezer by contrast would use various terms-of-art and subculture references that many audience members (and even Destiny himself) wouldn't understand, and would give long rambling vague answers that made people think he was dodging the question.\n\nIf I find a relatively technical discussion of Eliezer's, lasting at least a half hour, where he does a better job of communicating in a way that won't be off-putting to most educated English speakers, I'll resolve this to YES. Otherwise it resolves to NO.\n\nGiven how subjective this is, I won't bet.\n\nOther atypical aspects of his communication aren't important. For example he also tends to act rather arorgant and make poorly-received jokes, but neither of those needs to change in order for this market to resolve YES.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-09-24T01:46:45.009000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5978.118307312781,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.38789176940918,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Mentions"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.471216,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.471216,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-talk-like-a","chart_24h":[0.471216,0.471216],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"0pTKMJQRedeZ5jOTMTu5","event_id":"0pTKMJQRedeZ5jOTMTu5","slug":"will-eliezer-yudkowsky-talk-like-a","question":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Eliezer uses an idiosyncratic phraseology and tends to assume a lot of shared context from his conversation partner. This works fine with other enfranchised rationalists, but makes it difficult for him to be understood when speaking to a general audience.\n\nFor example, in the Destiny vs. Eliezer debate, Destiny took care to use common words and simple, concise descriptions. Eliezer by contrast would use various terms-of-art and subculture references that many audience members (and even Destiny himself) wouldn't understand, and would give long rambling vague answers that made people think he was dodging the question.\n\nIf I find a relatively technical discussion of Eliezer's, lasting at least a half hour, where he does a better job of communicating in a way that won't be off-putting to most educated English speakers, I'll resolve this to YES. Otherwise it resolves to NO.\n\nGiven how subjective this is, I won't bet.\n\nOther atypical aspects of his communication aren't important. For example he also tends to act rather arorgant and make poorly-received jokes, but neither of those needs to change in order for this market to resolve YES.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.471216,0.528784],"probability":0.471216,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-09-24T01:46:45.009000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5978.118307312781,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.38789176940918,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Mentions"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T23:15:27.453992Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-21T19:40:27.943382Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-talk-like-a","event_title":"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?","chart_24h":[0.471216,0.471216]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/0pTKMJQRedeZ5jOTMTu5","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:50:25.566989Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?\" — top market at 47% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}