{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/0zc5ENIOyp","as_of":"2026-10-24T05:17:02.669219Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"What will happen during Trump's second term?\" — 127 markets; highest \"Flag desecration prohibition passed\" at 100% as of 2026-10-24 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/0zc5ENIOyp","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/Mana/what-will-happen-during-trumps-seco-AdN8y00IUt"},"source":"manifold","id":"0zc5ENIOyp","ticker":"0zc5ENIOyp","slug":"what-will-happen-during-trumps-seco-AdN8y00IUt","title":"What will happen during Trump's second term?","description":"Criteria for the answers I have added. I may interpret answers others have added and write my interpretations here as well:\n\nMass deportations: Will resolve yes if mass deportations happen in Trump's second term. None of the actions from Trump's first term would count for this market.\n\nSupreme Court packing: Will resolve yes if, at any point during Trump's term, the Supreme Court has more than nine justices. Temporary appointments will count as a justice for the purposes of this market. If more than nine justices are not in the Supreme Court at any point during Trump's term, this market will resolve to no.\n\nProhibiting or restricting transgender care for adults: This will resolve yes if, at any point, transgender care for adults is restricted to prohibited. For example, if a law is passed prohibiting the purchase or use of HRT for transgender care for adults, this would resolve yes. Any action intended to only impact minors will not count.\n\nEnd Russo-Ukranian war in 90 days: If the Russo-Ukrainian war is ended within 90 days of his inauguration, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.\n\nRFK Jr.  gets cabinet position or position in any public health department: If Robert Francis Kennedy Jr. gets a cabinet position or position in any federal public health department, the market will resolve to yes. For example, a position in the FDA, CDC, or HHS would count. \n\nFlag desecration prohibition passed: Trump has said that he wants anyone burning the flag to get one year in jail. If any laws prohibiting the desecration of the flag are passed, this market will resolve to yes. Executive orders would also count for this market.\n\nClarification (1/29/2025): Executive Orders or laws that are instantly blocked, ruled as unenforceable, etc., e.g. by courts, will still count for a yes resolution.\n\n22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms: If the 22nd amendment is repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms, (e.g. a Supreme Court decision rules that Trump can serve for a third term under those grounds) this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.\n\nAny vaccines banned for any group of people: If any vaccines are banned for any group of people, this market will resolve to yes. For example, if RFK Jr. bans covid vaccines for all children, this market will resolve to yes. Laws requiring anyone to apply for permission by the government, or enroll in a waiting period for vaccines will also count. Vaccines must be able to be generally gotten by simply walking into a clinic or making a same-day appointment as currently regularly happens. Laws requiring, for example, that parents must consent for or be informed of their minor children's vaccinations will not be considered a ban. However, laws requiring consent from minors for vaccines will count. This is because this would likely result in infant vaccinations being effectively banned, due to it being impossible for an infant to consent to vaccinations, as well as many children refusing to be vaccinated simply because they are scared of needles.\n\nJ6er pardoned: If any January 6 insurrectionist is pardoned by Trump, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.\n\nTrump impeached: If Trump is impeached at any point in his term, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to no. Any impeachments of Trump will count as long as they happen in his second term, even if the grounds of them are on actions that were not committed in Trump's second term. If Trump is impeached, this market shall immediately resolve yes; conviction from the Senate is not required.\n\nUpdate 2025-01-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Flag desecration prohibition passed:\n\nExecutive Orders or laws that are instantly blocked, ruled as unenforceable, etc., e.g. by courts, will still count for a yes resolution.\n\nIf a flag desecration prohibition is passed, it counts regardless of any takebacks or rulings of illegality or unconstitutionality later.\n\nUpdate 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Local and State Vaccine Bans Clarification:\n\nLocal and state bans on vaccines for any group of people will count towards a yes resolution.\n\nUpdate 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): State and Local Actions Clarification:\n\nAll Markets: Unless otherwise specified, state and local actions will count towards the resolution criteria for every market.\n\nThis applies to any criteria not explicitly limited to federal actions.\n\nUpdate 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Vaccine Ban Clarification:\n\nThe original intent was for only federal bans on vaccines for any group of people to count.\n\nLocal and State Bans will now count toward a yes resolution.\n\nThis update overrides the initial federal-only criterion.\n\nUpdate 2026-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Blue wave in 2026 midterm elections:\n\nResolves YES if the Democratic Party wins both the House and the 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