{"source":"manifold","id":"12ocvN40pE9zyYqDs0KM","ticker":null,"slug":"will-there-be-a-publicly-detrans-el","title":"Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029?","description":"This market resolves as YES if there is an elected official at the state or federal level in the US who is publicly detransitioning or publicly has detransitioned before 2029. This includes both those in and out of office. If you already know of an elected official who is openly detrans and provide evidence of their existence from local or national news, then this market resolves as YES. Personal communications (say on social networks) confirming the person as detrans do not qualify. If there is not a detrans elected official before 2029, then this market resolves as NO.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-05T14:59:45.215000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3863.817717391027,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.610401153564453,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.347811,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029?","top_outcome_probability":0.347811,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Nadja_L/will-there-be-a-publicly-detrans-el","chart_24h":[0.347811,0.347811],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"12ocvN40pE9zyYqDs0KM","event_id":"12ocvN40pE9zyYqDs0KM","slug":"will-there-be-a-publicly-detrans-el","question":"Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market resolves as YES if there is an elected official at the state or federal level in the US who is publicly detransitioning or publicly has detransitioned before 2029. This includes both those in and out of office. If you already know of an elected official who is openly detrans and provide evidence of their existence from local or national news, then this market resolves as YES. Personal communications (say on social networks) confirming the person as detrans do not qualify. If there is not a detrans elected official before 2029, then this market resolves as NO.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.347811,0.652189],"probability":0.347811,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-05T14:59:45.215000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3863.817717391027,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.610401153564453,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Nadja_L/will-there-be-a-publicly-detrans-el","event_title":"Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029?","chart_24h":[0.347811,0.347811]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/12ocvN40pE9zyYqDs0KM","as_of":"2026-06-10T13:12:56.764359Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029?\" — top market at 35% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}