{"source":"manifold","id":"1Qu473ClJCmQqbyB4TH3","ticker":"1Qu473ClJCmQqbyB4TH3","slug":"when-will-a-robot-reliably-pass-the","title":"When will a robot reliably pass \"The Coffee Test\"?","description":"\"The Coffee Test\" is an alternative to Turing test proposed by Steve Wozniak. It goes as follows: \n\nA machine is required to enter an average American home and figure out how to make coffee: find the coffee machine, find the coffee, add water, find a mug, and brew the coffee by pushing the proper buttons. This has not yet been completed.\n\nThe test has to be repeated several times under independent control. (I.e. self-published video by Boston Dynamics is not enough.) The success rate has to be at least 50% out of at least 3 attempts in different houses.\n\nThe market will be resolved positively after a month has passed since the successful demonstration to give some time to uncover possible cheating.\n\nRelated question with a different time scale:\n\n@/MatthewBarnett/will-a-robot-be-created-that-is-capI do not bet on my own questions. ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-22T10:21:07.785000Z","end_date":"2030-02-02T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":18125.585162494765,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.089637756347656,"liquidity":2490.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["technology-default","robotics","ai","the-coffee-test"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before 2030","top_outcome_probability":0.647732,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-24T06:40:21.630370Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-24T06:40:21.630370Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-a-robot-reliably-pass-the","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"e0c7df19d1db","event_id":"1Qu473ClJCmQqbyB4TH3","slug":null,"question":"Before 2030","group_item_title":"Before 2030","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.647732,0.352268],"probability":0.647732,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-22T10:21:07.785000Z","end_date":"2030-02-02T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":564.5222876679053,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":15.078062057495117,"liquidity":405.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T17:42:37.101833Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T17:41:40.896428Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-a-robot-reliably-pass-the","event_title":"When will a robot reliably pass \"The Coffee Test\"?","chart_24h":[0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732,0.647732]},{"source":"manifold","id":"dd4cac5afe8f","event_id":"1Qu473ClJCmQqbyB4TH3","slug":null,"question":"Before 2029","group_item_title":"Before 2029","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.362682,0.637318],"probability":0.362682,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-22T10:21:07.785000Z","end_date":"2030-02-02T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":704.835663390116,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.15106964111328,"liquidity":325.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T17:42:37.101833Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T17:41:40.896428Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-a-robot-reliably-pass-the","event_title":"When will a robot reliably pass \"The Coffee Test\"?","chart_24h":[0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682,0.362682]},{"source":"manifold","id":"c298139df6f1","event_id":"1Qu473ClJCmQqbyB4TH3","slug":null,"question":"Before 2028","group_item_title":"Before 2028","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.285663,0.714337],"probability":0.285663,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-22T10:21:07.785000Z","end_date":"2030-02-02T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1067.1346969693311,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":18.255680084228516,"liquidity":465.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T17:42:37.101833Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T17:41:40.896428Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-a-robot-reliably-pass-the","event_title":"When will a robot reliably pass \"The Coffee Test\"?","chart_24h":[0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663,0.285663]},{"source":"manifold","id":"32ab802f3f37","event_id":"1Qu473ClJCmQqbyB4TH3","slug":null,"question":"Before 2027","group_item_title":"Before 2027","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.138119,0.861881],"probability":0.138119,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-22T10:21:07.785000Z","end_date":"2030-02-02T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":884.1142979163176,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.28489875793457,"liquidity":345.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T17:42:37.101833Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T17:41:40.896428Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-a-robot-reliably-pass-the","event_title":"When will a robot reliably pass \"The Coffee Test\"?","chart_24h":[0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119,0.138119]},{"source":"manifold","id":"1bfce4610fd9","event_id":"1Qu473ClJCmQqbyB4TH3","slug":null,"question":"Before 2025","group_item_title":"Before 2025","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-22T10:21:07.785000Z","end_date":"2030-02-02T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":385.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T17:42:37.101833Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T17:41:40.896428Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-a-robot-reliably-pass-the","event_title":"When will a robot reliably pass \"The Coffee Test\"?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"3ec8ed54cb85","event_id":"1Qu473ClJCmQqbyB4TH3","slug":null,"question":"Before 2026","group_item_title":"Before 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-22T10:21:07.785000Z","end_date":"2030-02-02T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":50.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.803150653839111,"liquidity":565.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T17:42:37.101833Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T17:41:40.896428Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-a-robot-reliably-pass-the","event_title":"When will a robot reliably pass \"The Coffee Test\"?","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/1Qu473ClJCmQqbyB4TH3","as_of":"2026-06-10T18:01:15.099615Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"When will a robot reliably pass \"The Coffee Test\"?\" — top market at 65% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}