{"source":"manifold","id":"1eioMjtxSQJ3mozxYdCc","ticker":null,"slug":"will-gavin-newsom-run-for-president-30346a07294e","title":"Will Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election?","description":" Updated description:\n\nMy current take: this should not be the same as \"does he win the primary\"; that's a different question, that we have other markets for. \"Run for\" in my mind means election activity, including being on the primary ballot, or the presidential ballot, or filing FEC forms.\n\nI propose that this resolve Yes if either:\n\nHe appears on any primary or general election ballot for the office of the Presidency or party (presumably Democratic) nomination for it\n\nHe files an FEC Form 2\n\nAny objections or proposed other criteria?","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-22T10:02:20.698000Z","end_date":"2028-11-09T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11793.893224255577,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.99692916870117,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.943586,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election?","top_outcome_probability":0.943586,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T21:59:16.555457Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T21:59:16.555457Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/TravisYork/will-gavin-newsom-run-for-president-30346a07294e","chart_24h":[0.943586,0.943586],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"1eioMjtxSQJ3mozxYdCc","event_id":"1eioMjtxSQJ3mozxYdCc","slug":"will-gavin-newsom-run-for-president-30346a07294e","question":"Will Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election?","group_item_title":null,"description":" Updated description:\n\nMy current take: this should not be the same as \"does he win the primary\"; that's a different question, that we have other markets for. \"Run for\" in my mind means election activity, including being on the primary ballot, or the presidential ballot, or filing FEC forms.\n\nI propose that this resolve Yes if either:\n\nHe appears on any primary or general election ballot for the office of the Presidency or party (presumably Democratic) nomination for it\n\nHe files an FEC Form 2\n\nAny objections or proposed other criteria?","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.943586,0.056414],"probability":0.943586,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-22T10:02:20.698000Z","end_date":"2028-11-09T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11793.893224255577,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.99692916870117,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T21:58:31.365978Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/TravisYork/will-gavin-newsom-run-for-president-30346a07294e","event_title":"Will Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election?","chart_24h":[0.943586,0.943586]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/1eioMjtxSQJ3mozxYdCc","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:38:06.032516Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election?\" — top market at 94% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}