{"source":"manifold","id":"1kbzaXsfSLjFSe1zt668","ticker":null,"slug":"if-artificial-superintelligence-exi","title":"IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]","description":"This is a market that is attempting to evaluate the probability of AI wiping out humanity by 2030 conditional on artificial superintelligence existing. \n\nIf artificial superintelligence does not exist by 2030, this market will resolve to N/A. \n\nThis market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027 as do the linked markets.\n\nInspired by https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1686140175993487364\n\nRelated markets: \nhttps://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r?r=RWxpZXplcll1ZGtvd3NreQ\nhttps://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-artificial-superintelligence-e\n\n[link preview]","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-31T23:41:23.436000Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3172.0552302142205,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.40203094482422,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.38,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]","top_outcome_probability":0.38,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/aashiq/if-artificial-superintelligence-exi","chart_24h":[0.38,0.38],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"1kbzaXsfSLjFSe1zt668","event_id":"1kbzaXsfSLjFSe1zt668","slug":"if-artificial-superintelligence-exi","question":"IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]","group_item_title":null,"description":"This is a market that is attempting to evaluate the probability of AI wiping out humanity by 2030 conditional on artificial superintelligence existing. \n\nIf artificial superintelligence does not exist by 2030, this market will resolve to N/A. \n\nThis market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027 as do the linked markets.\n\nInspired by https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1686140175993487364\n\nRelated markets: \nhttps://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r?r=RWxpZXplcll1ZGtvd3NreQ\nhttps://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-artificial-superintelligence-e\n\n[link preview]","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.38,0.62],"probability":0.38,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-31T23:41:23.436000Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3172.0552302142205,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.40203094482422,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/aashiq/if-artificial-superintelligence-exi","event_title":"IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]","chart_24h":[0.38,0.38]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/1kbzaXsfSLjFSe1zt668","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:39:48.555696Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]\" — top market at 38% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}