{"source":"manifold","id":"1rtkalKlTIvDKRshJWEp","ticker":null,"slug":"workinprogress-if-either-happens-wi","title":"Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?","description":"Suggested resolution critera.\n\nThis market resolves \"Yes\" if, according to the Institute for Study War, Ukraine is in control of any territory in Crimea.\n\nThis market resolves \"No\" if, according to the Institute for Study War, Ukraine has control of 80% of either Luhansk or Donetsk Oblasts.\n\nThis market resolves \"Ambiguous\" if neither happens or if there is a nuclear strike prior to either happening.\n\nOct 8, 3:22pm: Will Ukraine invade Crimea before it takes back Luhansk or Donetsk? → Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?\n\n\nClose date updated to 2024-01-01 12:01 am","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-10-08T14:10:39.462000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T00:01:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5437.688212855417,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.772783279418945,"liquidity":1030.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.690068,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?","top_outcome_probability":0.690068,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/workinprogress-if-either-happens-wi","chart_24h":[0.690068,0.690068],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"1rtkalKlTIvDKRshJWEp","event_id":"1rtkalKlTIvDKRshJWEp","slug":"workinprogress-if-either-happens-wi","question":"Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Suggested resolution critera.\n\nThis market resolves \"Yes\" if, according to the Institute for Study War, Ukraine is in control of any territory in Crimea.\n\nThis market resolves \"No\" if, according to the Institute for Study War, Ukraine has control of 80% of either Luhansk or Donetsk Oblasts.\n\nThis market resolves \"Ambiguous\" if neither happens or if there is a nuclear strike prior to either happening.\n\nOct 8, 3:22pm: Will Ukraine invade Crimea before it takes back Luhansk or Donetsk? → Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?\n\n\nClose date updated to 2024-01-01 12:01 am","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.690068,0.309932],"probability":0.690068,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-10-08T14:10:39.462000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T00:01:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5437.688212855417,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.772783279418945,"liquidity":1030.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/workinprogress-if-either-happens-wi","event_title":"Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?","chart_24h":[0.690068,0.690068]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/1rtkalKlTIvDKRshJWEp","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:23:31.378827Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?\" — top market at 69% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}