{"source":"manifold","id":"25R9uh0860","ticker":null,"slug":"will-trump-run-for-a-third-term","title":"Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?","description":"resolves YES if\n\ntrump formally announces a campaign for the 2028 election, whether or not it is legal at the time\n\nother republicans campaign trump as a party candidate\n\nhe wins the 2028 election, even if he does not formally announce he is running\n\nresolves NO if \n\ntrump announces he will not run for a 3rd term at the time of market close\n\nthis market will resolve NO if legislation is introduced/passed that makes a 3rd term legally possible, but trump decides not to run by the end of the election","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-11-13T03:07:35.492000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":22489.31426400788,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.18809509277344,"liquidity":2000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.143929,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?","top_outcome_probability":0.143929,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-09-01T10:22:13.552779Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-01T10:22:13.552779Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-trump-run-for-a-third-term","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"25R9uh0860","event_id":"25R9uh0860","slug":"will-trump-run-for-a-third-term","question":"Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?","group_item_title":null,"description":"resolves YES if\n\ntrump formally announces a campaign for the 2028 election, whether or not it is legal at the time\n\nother republicans campaign trump as a party candidate\n\nhe wins the 2028 election, even if he does not formally announce he is running\n\nresolves NO if \n\ntrump announces he will not run for a 3rd term at the time of market close\n\nthis market will resolve NO if legislation is introduced/passed that makes a 3rd term legally possible, but trump decides not to run by the end of the election","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.143929,0.856071],"probability":0.143929,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-11-13T03:07:35.492000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":22489.31426400788,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.18809509277344,"liquidity":2000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-01T10:21:42.073242Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-01T10:21:42.073242Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-trump-run-for-a-third-term","event_title":"Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/25R9uh0860","as_of":"2026-09-08T23:01:17.507945Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?\" — top market at 14% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}