{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/25R9uh0860","as_of":"2026-10-24T06:08:47.002354Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?\" — 14% as of 2026-10-11 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/25R9uh0860","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-trump-run-for-a-third-term"},"source":"manifold","id":"25R9uh0860","ticker":null,"slug":"will-trump-run-for-a-third-term","title":"Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?","description":"resolves YES if\n\ntrump formally announces a campaign for the 2028 election, whether or not it is legal at the time\n\nother republicans campaign trump as a party candidate\n\nhe wins the 2028 election, even if he does not formally announce he is running\n\nresolves NO if \n\ntrump announces he will not run for a 3rd term at the time of market close\n\nthis market will resolve NO if legislation is introduced/passed that makes a 3rd term legally possible, but trump decides not to run by the end of the election","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-11-13T03:07:35.492000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":22577.426896346853,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.96348190307617,"liquidity":2000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.143123,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?","top_outcome_probability":0.143123,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-11T08:16:11.332414Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-11T08:16:11.332414Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-trump-run-for-a-third-term","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"25R9uh0860","event_id":"25R9uh0860","slug":"will-trump-run-for-a-third-term","question":"Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?","group_item_title":null,"description":"resolves YES if\n\ntrump formally announces a campaign for the 2028 election, whether or not it is legal at the time\n\nother republicans campaign trump as a party candidate\n\nhe wins the 2028 election, even if he does not formally announce he is running\n\nresolves NO if \n\ntrump announces he will not run for a 3rd term at the time of market close\n\nthis market will resolve NO if legislation is introduced/passed that makes a 3rd term legally possible, but trump decides not to run by the end of the election","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.143123,0.856877],"probability":0.143123,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-11-13T03:07:35.492000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":22577.426896346853,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.96348190307617,"liquidity":2000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-11T08:15:30.972810Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-11T08:15:30.972810Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-trump-run-for-a-third-term","event_title":"Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?","chart_24h":null}]}