{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/28RE50E8Nt","as_of":"2026-10-24T04:12:10.374294Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?\" — 264 markets; highest \"Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)\" at 100% as of 2026-10-23 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/28RE50E8Nt","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/what-will-happen-during-trumps-seco"},"source":"manifold","id":"28RE50E8Nt","ticker":"28RE50E8Nt","slug":"what-will-happen-during-trumps-seco","title":"What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?","description":"Add your own answers!\n\nUnless otherwise specified: \n\n \"Trump bans\" refers to Trump or the US government, but actions, like \"Trump says X\" refers only to Trump. I expect the intent to be pretty clear. (If not, I reserve the right to modify the phrasing to make it clearer; ping me if you find an option unclear)\n\n\"Trump\" refers to the person that was president of the US in 2017-2021.\n\nIf something is not known to have happened, unless otherwise specified, it would resolve NO. For example, the option \"Trump gets COVID\" resolves NO unless it is announced or sufficiently confirmed, despite the possibility that he gets covid without announcing it. The intent here is to resolve YES when the balance of evidence clearly indicates the option prediction happened.\n\n\"Trump's Second Term\" is the time between Jan 20 2025 and Jan 20 2029, so long as the US continues to exist and Republicans remain in power in the White House. Trump dying doesn't end Trump's Second Term for the purposes of this market.\n\nI reserve the right to cancel any option that doesn't seem relevant / unconnected to trump / etc. If a question is ambiguous, please ping the question creator for clarification. If they don't clarify within a few days, ping me and I'll decide how it's disambiguated.\n\nConsensus of credible reporting will be used for this market's resolution. I am not following Trump's every move so I'd very much appreciate @s when options need to be resolved. If I don't reply within a day, you can keep repinging me, or dming me if that's a recurring issue. I try to see creator pings but may miss some.\n\nUpdate 2025-17-01 (PST): - Clarification on \"Trump discloses aliens are real\":\n\nRefers to Trump stating that aliens have interacted with or visited Earth.\n\nDoes not include aliens located 5 trillion light years away outside the observable universe. (AI summary of creator comment)\n\nUpdate 2025-17-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Trump discloses Aliens are real refers to scenarios where:\n\nAliens have interacted with humans\n\nAlien technology has been found\n\nAliens have visited Earth\n\nDoes not include aliens located 5 trillion light years away outside the observable universe.\n\nUpdate 2025-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator\n\nThe option will resolve YES only if Trump stops being acting president after he has officially become president and before his term ends.\n\nIn-ceremony irregularities, such as brief procedural moments at the start of the term, do not trigger a YES resolution.\n\nThis clarification emphasizes the spirit of the market, focusing on the scenario where Trump ceases to be acting president during his term, after already assuming the office.\n\nUpdate 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA':\n\nThis will be interpreted based on an existential quantification (i.e., \"there exists\").\n\nThe option will resolve YES if displaying the trans pride flag becomes illegal in at least one jurisdiction within the USA.\n\nIt does not require a universal ban across all parts of the USA.\n\nUpdate 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Trump discloses Aliens are real':\n\nPublic support by Trump for the theory of panspermia, or similar theories suggesting life on Earth originated from extraterrestrial microbial life (e.g., alien bacteria on a comet), will not by itself be sufficient for this option to resolve YES.\n\nFor a YES resolution, the disclosure must meet the established criteria, such as aliens interacting with humans, the discovery of alien technology, or aliens visiting Earth.\n\nUpdate 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)':\n\nFor this option to resolve YES, Trump's statement does not necessarily need to be unequivocally definitive or phrased with absolute, explicit certainty.\n\nThe context and manner of how Trump makes the statement will be considered when determining if a disclosure has occurred.\n\nUpdate 2025-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Will Trump not be acting president before his term is over, for any reason?':\n\nThe creator has clarified that the intended meaning, and proposed new phrasing for the option, is: \"Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over.\"\n\nThis means the option resolves YES if another individual (e.g., the Vice President) formally assumes the powers of the presidency as Acting President (for example, under the 25th Amendment) during Trump's term.\n\nUpdate 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Trump extends his term past 4 years': This will resolve YES if both of the following conditions are met:\n\nDonald Trump is still president on January 22, 2029 (or a similar date clearly after his 2025-2029 term would normally end).\n\nThis continued presidency is without an election having taken place that elected him for the period beyond January 20, 2029.\n\nUpdate 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will resolve the option 'Musk becomes head of DOGE' to N/A. See the linked comment for the creator's detailed reasoning regarding the ambiguity of the option.\n\nUpdate 2025-05-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding options with asymmetric ambiguity:\n\nIf an option is structured such that a YES resolution is likely to be clear, but a NO resolution is likely to be ambiguous (potentially resulting in an N/A resolution), the creator views this as potentially creating an undesirable bias in the market's pricing.\n\nIn such situations, to maintain fairness, the creator may prefer to resolve the option as N/A or consider rephrasing/recreating the question to avoid such ambiguity-driven bias.\n\nUpdate 2025-06-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Trump does a calculation in his head that involves at least 2 numbers each with at least 2 non-zero digits':\n\nThe creator has proposed to edit this option to require that Trump voices a calculation.\n\nThe calculation must still involve at least two numbers, each with at least two non-zero digits.\n\nThis shifts the criterion from an unobservable internal thought to an externally verifiable action (e.g., spoken or written).\n\nUpdate 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option about Trump performing a calculation (which the creator previously proposed to change from 'in his head' to 'Trump voices a calculation'):\n\nThe creator has affirmed that for a YES resolution, this voiced calculation should be, for example, spoken by Trump or posted by him on social media (e.g., X/Truth Social).\n\nImportantly, the calculation must not be read by Trump directly from a teleprompter.\n\nUpdate 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Trump voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits':\n\nFor this option to resolve YES, the calculation voiced by Trump must be mathematically accurate. The stated result of the calculation must be correct.\n\nUpdate 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Second Muslim ban':\n\nA YES resolution does not require the new travel ban to cover the exact same countries as the original ban.\n\nThe option will resolve YES if there is clear, credible reporting (e.g., from journalists, advocacy groups) that draws a direct link between the new ban and the original 'Muslim ban'.\n\nUpdate 2025-10-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'The Senate invokes the \"nuclear option\" to bypass cloture after Sept '25':\n\nThe creator has edited this option to add the temporal qualifier 'after Sept '25' (after September 2025).\n\nThis change was made because the nuclear option was already invoked on September 10, 2025.\n\nThe option now requires a subsequent invocation of the nuclear option after September 2025 to resolve YES.\n\nUpdate 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option '2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart':\n\nThis option will be resolved from NivlacM's point of view (the answer submitter's local Walmart), not from the market creator's perspective.\n\nUpdate 2026-09-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option 'Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US':\n\nThe creator has stated they intend to resolve this option to N/A due to 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