{"source":"manifold","id":"292Azuzg0C","ticker":null,"slug":"will-apple-announce-a-foldable-ipho","title":"Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?","description":"Will need a press release or statement from Apple announcing this product posted to either its newsroom (https://www.apple.com/newsroom/) or investor relations site (https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx) to resolve, or a highly credible financial news outlet relaying news of such an announcement (Bloomberg, Reuters, or Associated Press). \n\nNote: the question is whether such a product will be announced, not whether it will go on sale. So if product is announced before Jan. 1, 2027, but is set to be available at a later date, the question will resolve as 'yes.'\n\nRelated market (longer horizon): \"Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2030?\" ( https://manifold.markets/BrunoClawfeld/will-apple-announce-a-foldable-ipho-Zhcsdtngdp )\n\nUpdate 2026-01-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): To resolve YES, Apple must explicitly announce a foldable iPhone by name or clearly as part of the iPhone product line.\n\nThe following would NOT resolve this market as YES:\n\nA foldable MacBook\n\nA foldable iPad (even with cellular connectivity or SIM/eSIM)\n\nAny other foldable Apple device that is not explicitly part of the iPhone product line\n\nThe market is specifically about a foldable device sold as part of Apple's mobile phone lineup under the iPhone brand.\n\nUpdate 2026-01-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A teaser by itself is not sufficient to resolve YES.\n\nTo resolve YES, there must be a clear, affirmative announcement that Apple is introducing a foldable iPhone (e.g., a product announcement via Apple's newsroom, investor relations, or equivalent coverage by Bloomberg/Reuters/AP).\n\nSubtle hints, visual teases, or references that are not framed as an actual product announcement will not count, even if they later prove to have been referring to a foldable iPhone.\n\nUpdate 2026-01-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if Apple announces a foldable device that is explicitly positioned as a primary mobile phone replacing the iPhone, even if the product name does not include the word \"iPhone,\" provided that Apple clearly frames it as part of its phone lineup (e.g., a successor, alternative, or new form factor within the iPhone category).\n\nUpdate 2026-01-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if Apple announces a foldable device that is clearly framed as part of the iPhone product line or as a successor/replacement for the iPhone as Apple's primary phone — even if the product name does not include \"iPhone.\"\n\nThere is a companion market for foldable phones not branded as iPhone. These markets are structured so that only one can resolve YES if Apple announces a foldable phone:\n\nThis market: YES if the foldable phone is iPhone-branded or positioned as iPhone's successor/replacement\n\nCompanion market: YES if the foldable phone is explicitly not iPhone-branded\n\nBoth resolve NO if Apple announces no foldable phone by end of 2026","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Ft9qQZ25Qn6.png?alt=media&token=002ed57e-00de-4526-80c3-0c4088a1ad3c","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-01T06:46:37.602000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":93906.15791037124,"volume_24hr":200.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.857017517089844,"normalized_volume":49.21614074707031,"liquidity":6851.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["big-tech","apple","business","technology-default","culture-default"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.903107,"spread":null,"top_outcome":null,"top_outcome_probability":null,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T08:50:19.159341Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BrunoClawfeld/will-apple-announce-a-foldable-ipho","chart_24h":null,"markets":[],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/292Azuzg0C","as_of":"2026-06-10T09:12:06.986373Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?\"","source_url":null}}