{"source":"manifold","id":"2LPPzzURqu","ticker":null,"slug":"will-courts-overturn-trumps-executi","title":"Will courts overturn Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship?","description":"Background\n\nTrump signed an executive order that would deny automatic citizenship to children born in the U.S. to non-citizen parents. A federal judge has already issued a two-week temporary restraining order against it, calling it \"blatantly unconstitutional.\" The order directly challenges the 14th Amendment, which states that \"all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.\"\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis market will resolve YES if:\n\nA federal court issues a final ruling that overturns or invalidates Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship\n\nThe Supreme Court strikes down the executive order\n\nThis market will resolve NO if:\n\nCourts uphold the executive order as constitutional\n\nThe executive order remains in effect without being overturned by courts through December 31, 2027\n\nThe market will resolve N/A if:\n\nThe order is withdrawn or rescinded before courts make a final ruling\n\nThe order is superseded by new legislation before courts make a final ruling\n\nUpdate 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification:\n\nThe executive order must be struck down for children of both legal and illegal immigrants.\n\nA partial striking down (e.g., only for one group) would not count as overturning the order.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/ms/EuALPEISc6.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-25T18:47:06.842000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15406.263716274174,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.904361724853516,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.907867,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will courts overturn Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship?","top_outcome_probability":0.907867,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ms/will-courts-overturn-trumps-executi","chart_24h":[0.907867,0.907867],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"2LPPzzURqu","event_id":"2LPPzzURqu","slug":"will-courts-overturn-trumps-executi","question":"Will courts overturn Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Background\n\nTrump signed an executive order that would deny automatic citizenship to children born in the U.S. to non-citizen parents. A federal judge has already issued a two-week temporary restraining order against it, calling it \"blatantly unconstitutional.\" The order directly challenges the 14th Amendment, which states that \"all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.\"\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis market will resolve YES if:\n\nA federal court issues a final ruling that overturns or invalidates Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship\n\nThe Supreme Court strikes down the executive order\n\nThis market will resolve NO if:\n\nCourts uphold the executive order as constitutional\n\nThe executive order remains in effect without being overturned by courts through December 31, 2027\n\nThe market will resolve N/A if:\n\nThe order is withdrawn or rescinded before courts make a final ruling\n\nThe order is superseded by new legislation before courts make a final ruling\n\nUpdate 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification:\n\nThe executive order must be struck down for children of both legal and illegal immigrants.\n\nA partial striking down (e.g., only for one group) would not count as overturning the order.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/ms/EuALPEISc6.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.907867,0.092133],"probability":0.907867,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-25T18:47:06.842000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15406.263716274174,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.904361724853516,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ms/will-courts-overturn-trumps-executi","event_title":"Will courts overturn Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship?","chart_24h":[0.907867,0.907867]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/2LPPzzURqu","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:33:59.183384Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will courts overturn Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship?\" — top market at 91% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}