{"source":"manifold","id":"2NoKncZsk8U5CaQFWRX8","ticker":null,"slug":"will-1-million-humanoid-robots-be-m","title":"Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?","description":"Resolves as YES if at least one million humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2030.\n\nDifferent number of robots:\n\n@/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0686840a9b86 \n\n@/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-cada66fe0215 \n\n@/RemNi/will-10k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-c55c48255552 \n\n@/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-027d2adb7b87 \n\n@/RemNi/will-50k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-3e64f6f470dc \n\n@/RemNi/will-100k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-d473dc54730d \n\n@/RemNi/will-200k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-c5274fc882b4 \n\n@/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa \n\n@/RemNi/will-1-million-humanoid-robots-be-m (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-2m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-77a8d2eb7b1c \n\nDifferent years:\n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-a408a64f3756 \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact \n\n@/RemNi/will-1-million-humanoid-robots-be-m (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-a-million-humanoid-robots-have \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0f2acadab75f \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-04a4cc646b5b \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-b852297a6f2a \n\nOther reference points for manufacture of 1M humanoid robots:\n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-5272497e9ab8 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid \n\nOther questions for 2030:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-f0c1a341f8ea \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-59822776e416 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-35fc023d619f \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor \n\n@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594 \n\nThese humanoid robots must meet specific criteria to be counted towards this total. Each robot must be bipedal, walking upright on two legs in a manner that broadly resembles human walking. Additionally, each robot must be equipped with hands capable of manipulating objects. The hands should have fingers or similar appendages, allowing them to grip, hold, and interact with various items. Each robot must be capable of autonomous function without external power for a duration of at least 1 hour in order to qualify in the context of this question.\n\nEach robot must be between 1.25 and 3 meters tall when standing up, and weigh between 25 and 500 kg. Furthermore, each robot must be able to lift a 5kg box off the floor and walk with it for 10 meters in order to qualify.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FWJCvczXHsR.png?alt=media&token=d315f6ee-c4e9-408a-9716-73285f0d08f5","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-17T17:47:09.857000Z","end_date":"2030-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6717.492646765409,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.154090881347656,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.5,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-1-million-humanoid-robots-be-m","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"2NoKncZsk8U5CaQFWRX8","event_id":"2NoKncZsk8U5CaQFWRX8","slug":"will-1-million-humanoid-robots-be-m","question":"Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves as YES if at least one million humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2030.\n\nDifferent number of robots:\n\n@/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0686840a9b86 \n\n@/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-cada66fe0215 \n\n@/RemNi/will-10k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-c55c48255552 \n\n@/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-027d2adb7b87 \n\n@/RemNi/will-50k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-3e64f6f470dc \n\n@/RemNi/will-100k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-d473dc54730d \n\n@/RemNi/will-200k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-c5274fc882b4 \n\n@/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa \n\n@/RemNi/will-1-million-humanoid-robots-be-m (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-2m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-77a8d2eb7b1c \n\nDifferent years:\n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-a408a64f3756 \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact \n\n@/RemNi/will-1-million-humanoid-robots-be-m (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-a-million-humanoid-robots-have \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0f2acadab75f \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-04a4cc646b5b \n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-b852297a6f2a \n\nOther reference points for manufacture of 1M humanoid robots:\n\n@/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-5272497e9ab8 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid \n\nOther questions for 2030:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-f0c1a341f8ea \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-59822776e416 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-35fc023d619f \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor \n\n@/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594 \n\nThese humanoid robots must meet specific criteria to be counted towards this total. Each robot must be bipedal, walking upright on two legs in a manner that broadly resembles human walking. Additionally, each robot must be equipped with hands capable of manipulating objects. The hands should have fingers or similar appendages, allowing them to grip, hold, and interact with various items. Each robot must be capable of autonomous function without external power for a duration of at least 1 hour in order to qualify in the context of this question.\n\nEach robot must be between 1.25 and 3 meters tall when standing up, and weigh between 25 and 500 kg. Furthermore, each robot must be able to lift a 5kg box off the floor and walk with it for 10 meters in order to qualify.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FWJCvczXHsR.png?alt=media&token=d315f6ee-c4e9-408a-9716-73285f0d08f5","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-17T17:47:09.857000Z","end_date":"2030-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6717.492646765409,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.154090881347656,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:36:25.491276Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T16:35:54.402245Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-1-million-humanoid-robots-be-m","event_title":"Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/2NoKncZsk8U5CaQFWRX8","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:11:00.189871Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?\" — top market at 50% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}