{"source":"manifold","id":"2pPiTjV7aTEtEmwFlXOI","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-us-be-at-war-with-russia-a","title":"Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?","description":"There needs to be direct armed conflict, so stuff like cold war or proxy wars in general don't count.\n\nUS providing weapons to Ukraine (or any other country) but not operating them through its military also doesn't count.\n\nIn case of doubt, I'll ask random people within my social circle (not Russians, Americans and not Manifold users) whether the US is at war with Russia.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F3XcSsLvv2s.png?alt=media&token=5a3e0d6e-998c-4e22-8a7a-3c9110d71a52","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-08T03:06:20.519000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T02:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5704.513523652541,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.082786560058594,"liquidity":1410.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.118284,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.118284,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-07T17:28:41.481757Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T17:28:41.481757Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-the-us-be-at-war-with-russia-a","chart_24h":[0.118284,0.118284],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"2pPiTjV7aTEtEmwFlXOI","event_id":"2pPiTjV7aTEtEmwFlXOI","slug":"will-the-us-be-at-war-with-russia-a","question":"Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"There needs to be direct armed conflict, so stuff like cold war or proxy wars in general don't count.\n\nUS providing weapons to Ukraine (or any other country) but not operating them through its military also doesn't count.\n\nIn case of doubt, I'll ask random people within my social circle (not Russians, Americans and not Manifold users) whether the US is at war with Russia.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F3XcSsLvv2s.png?alt=media&token=5a3e0d6e-998c-4e22-8a7a-3c9110d71a52","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.118284,0.881716],"probability":0.118284,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-08T03:06:20.519000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T02:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5704.513523652541,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.082786560058594,"liquidity":1410.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States","Russian Federation"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T20:03:55.965901Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T17:25:43.184049Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-the-us-be-at-war-with-russia-a","event_title":"Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?","chart_24h":[0.118284,0.118284]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/2pPiTjV7aTEtEmwFlXOI","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:08:48.693578Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?\" — top market at 12% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}