{"source":"manifold","id":"2pUncIzcEC","ticker":null,"slug":"elon-musk-creates-political-party-b","title":"Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?","description":"This market resolves YES if Elon Musk publicly announces the creation of a new political party before the end of Trump’s current term (January 20, 2029).\n\nThe party must be intended to run candidates in U.S. elections.\n\nA public announcement reported by credible news sources (e.g. NYT, WSJ, Reuters, CNN, BBC, Bloomberg, AP) or official filings with the FEC will count.\n\nSpeculation, jokes, or offhand remarks do not count unless followed by a formal announcement or filing.\n\nUpdate 2025-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES based on the public announcement or FEC filing of a new political party intended to run candidates in U.S. elections, regardless of whether:\n\nAny candidates ultimately get on the ballot.\n\nThe party succeeds in gaining ballot access.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-11T05:57:04.658000Z","end_date":"2029-01-21T11:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":33179.57695582896,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":40.678749084472656,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.086547,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?","top_outcome_probability":0.086547,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-05T07:16:15.854833Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T07:16:15.854833Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManiPart/elon-musk-creates-political-party-b","chart_24h":[0.086547,0.086547],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"2pUncIzcEC","event_id":"2pUncIzcEC","slug":"elon-musk-creates-political-party-b","question":"Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market resolves YES if Elon Musk publicly announces the creation of a new political party before the end of Trump’s current term (January 20, 2029).\n\nThe party must be intended to run candidates in U.S. elections.\n\nA public announcement reported by credible news sources (e.g. NYT, WSJ, Reuters, CNN, BBC, Bloomberg, AP) or official filings with the FEC will count.\n\nSpeculation, jokes, or offhand remarks do not count unless followed by a formal announcement or filing.\n\nUpdate 2025-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES based on the public announcement or FEC filing of a new political party intended to run candidates in U.S. elections, regardless of whether:\n\nAny candidates ultimately get on the ballot.\n\nThe party succeeds in gaining ballot access.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.086547,0.913453],"probability":0.086547,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-11T05:57:04.658000Z","end_date":"2029-01-21T11:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":33179.57695582896,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":40.678749084472656,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T10:22:33.454633Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T07:14:17.513516Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ManiPart/elon-musk-creates-political-party-b","event_title":"Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?","chart_24h":[0.086547,0.086547]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/2pUncIzcEC","as_of":"2026-06-10T13:55:38.247868Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?\" — top market at 9% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}