{"source":"manifold","id":"2ttlAtUQ5I","ticker":null,"slug":"ai-beats-human-baseline-on-posttrai","title":"AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?","description":"Jack Clark predicts YES: https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-439-ai-kernels-decentralized.\n\nResolves to YES if any LLM released prior to 1 Oct 2026 exceeds the human baseline of 61.77% on https://posttrainbench.com/. Reasonable time (to at most 1 Nov) will be given after the deadline in case a model is released close to the deadline that might do it. Result does not have to appear on posttrainbench.com per se but needs to be credible, and not contradicted by the website.\n\nResolves to NO if this does not occur. \n\n","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-05T19:08:18.616000Z","end_date":"2026-10-06T18:03:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9305.444551057108,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.34979248046875,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.534437,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.534437,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/ai-beats-human-baseline-on-posttrai","chart_24h":[0.534437,0.534437],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"2ttlAtUQ5I","event_id":"2ttlAtUQ5I","slug":"ai-beats-human-baseline-on-posttrai","question":"AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Jack Clark predicts YES: https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-439-ai-kernels-decentralized.\n\nResolves to YES if any LLM released prior to 1 Oct 2026 exceeds the human baseline of 61.77% on https://posttrainbench.com/. Reasonable time (to at most 1 Nov) will be given after the deadline in case a model is released close to the deadline that might do it. Result does not have to appear on posttrainbench.com per se but needs to be credible, and not contradicted by the website.\n\nResolves to NO if this does not occur. \n\n","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.534437,0.465563],"probability":0.534437,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-05T19:08:18.616000Z","end_date":"2026-10-06T18:03:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9305.444551057108,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.34979248046875,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/ai-beats-human-baseline-on-posttrai","event_title":"AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?","chart_24h":[0.534437,0.534437]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/2ttlAtUQ5I","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:21:56.365064Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?\" — top market at 53% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}