{"source":"manifold","id":"2uCurGdEYcHjUvvll896","ticker":null,"slug":"when-the-prc-invades-taiwan-will-th","title":"When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?","description":"Market will remain open until the PLA invasion has commenced and will resolve YES if the PLA strikes Taiwan's allies preemptively. Resolves NO if the Allies strike PLA targets before being hit themselves or if a  declaration of war has been formally issued by the government of any party on either side. So if the PLA declares war on the Allies and then strikes first it would resolve NO. Only preemptive, unannounced precision strikes against high value assets will resolve YES. ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-08-08T01:08:30.735000Z","end_date":"2030-12-15T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3031.553033601928,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.12864875793457,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["who-does-xi-think-he-is","china","taiwan","australia","xi-jinping"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.41246,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?","top_outcome_probability":0.41246,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":"2026-05-06T02:43:19.675738Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BTE/when-the-prc-invades-taiwan-will-th","chart_24h":[0.41246,0.41246],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"2uCurGdEYcHjUvvll896","event_id":"2uCurGdEYcHjUvvll896","slug":"when-the-prc-invades-taiwan-will-th","question":"When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Market will remain open until the PLA invasion has commenced and will resolve YES if the PLA strikes Taiwan's allies preemptively. Resolves NO if the Allies strike PLA targets before being hit themselves or if a  declaration of war has been formally issued by the government of any party on either side. So if the PLA declares war on the Allies and then strikes first it would resolve NO. Only preemptive, unannounced precision strikes against high value assets will resolve YES. ","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.41246,0.58754],"probability":0.41246,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-08-08T01:08:30.735000Z","end_date":"2030-12-15T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3031.553033601928,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.12864875793457,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["China","Taiwan","United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-06T23:49:48.224407Z","added_at":"2026-05-06T02:43:19.675738Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/BTE/when-the-prc-invades-taiwan-will-th","event_title":"When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?","chart_24h":[0.41246,0.41246]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/2uCurGdEYcHjUvvll896","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:26:21.786569Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?\" — top market at 41% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}