{"source":"manifold","id":"389HpvdvigElXaLZ6ZYH","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-have-at-least-one-more-ai-w","title":"Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?","description":"Resolves YES if general consensus is that we are in another AI winter comparable to the AI winters of the 1970s and 1990s\n\nResolves NO if general consensus is that we have realized AGI.\n\nClosing date will be moved forward perpetually untill either of the two resolution critera have been met.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/komplexkonjugat%2F1ff73aba369f.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-24T12:51:32.857000Z","end_date":"9999-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":111639.0291510109,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":50.65769958496094,"liquidity":1035.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.185865,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?","top_outcome_probability":0.185865,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-17T19:45:50.030630Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-17T19:45:50.030630Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/komplexkonjugat/will-we-have-at-least-one-more-ai-w","chart_24h":[0.185865,0.185865],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"389HpvdvigElXaLZ6ZYH","event_id":"389HpvdvigElXaLZ6ZYH","slug":"will-we-have-at-least-one-more-ai-w","question":"Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves YES if general consensus is that we are in another AI winter comparable to the AI winters of the 1970s and 1990s\n\nResolves NO if general consensus is that we have realized AGI.\n\nClosing date will be moved forward perpetually untill either of the two resolution critera have been met.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/komplexkonjugat%2F1ff73aba369f.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.185865,0.814135],"probability":0.185865,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-24T12:51:32.857000Z","end_date":"9999-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":111639.0291510109,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":50.65769958496094,"liquidity":1035.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T03:24:48.285150Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-17T19:43:21.705057Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/komplexkonjugat/will-we-have-at-least-one-more-ai-w","event_title":"Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?","chart_24h":[0.185865,0.185865]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/389HpvdvigElXaLZ6ZYH","as_of":"2026-07-25T18:09:35.063714Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?\" — top market at 19% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}