{"source":"manifold","id":"3D6duzcK98K2AlPKPO8O","ticker":null,"slug":"will-an-ai-be-able-to-write-a-passa-dcfa8493d2d0","title":"Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?","description":"In order to resolve YES, someone must provide an example of such a novel. It must:\n\nBe at least 60,000 words.\n\nBe interesting, not some attempt to game the system like \"Alice wanted to see how high she could count, so she said \"1\", then \"2\", then \"3\", then \"4\"...\" It must seem like something a human might write if they were trying to write a good novel.\n\nNot have obvious continuity errors.\n\nBe created from a single input prompt, no further prompting or human error-correction. (If it's an automated prompting, like telling it \"write the next chapter\" over and over, that's fine. The prompts just can't be providing any help or suggestions.)\n\nIt does not have to be \"good\" in a literary sense.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/IsaacKing/b4c589683e43.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=NsaeVDIovmSbmJwlQGXP%2FjeNj2aB7J7b1j6pWnSggfLM%2B%2BRHei6wFbGYVNErE6lRAEeXhgU1d2yyaMq0vhlr0OdLavTAcxNqGjh9bWvdcFjOBVFrfP7OU%2FiTNqo3fZRhid6EdXR3cDLwdFQGD9wM4e8%2BkGuQ%2Ftdo6SE3xfPRqEoN4RgEp%2FnzBdNivT6JIKu3MNTbW8e30Eq2GisruKdLJ45MMBY8F3qzZK3V0rzM0t6fDAg30f%2F%2FNPyKdaAslNdkVM8jbthQSGGnvTJbs398NXXFySSstybQWHm3XBdJfpulvNSfALdzuaYHJ5GXX%2BolMSgZrk52Rvh4Mqh4BrYmsw%3D%3D","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-02T05:39:00.180000Z","end_date":"2028-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7088.803526797123,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.511262893676758,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.894687,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.894687,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-an-ai-be-able-to-write-a-passa-dcfa8493d2d0","chart_24h":[0.894687,0.894687],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"3D6duzcK98K2AlPKPO8O","event_id":"3D6duzcK98K2AlPKPO8O","slug":"will-an-ai-be-able-to-write-a-passa-dcfa8493d2d0","question":"Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?","group_item_title":null,"description":"In order to resolve YES, someone must provide an example of such a novel. 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