{"source":"manifold","id":"3PB3VZbyPG6S4bEVTyVc","ticker":"3PB3VZbyPG6S4bEVTyVc","slug":"will-sam-altman-be-considered-a-gri","title":"Will Sam Altman be considered a grifter by 2030?","description":"On the 1st of January 2030, a poll will be launched with the question: \"Is Sam Altman a grifter?\"\n\nIf the word \"grifter\" falls out of popular use by that time, the question will read:\n\"Is Sam Altman a grifter (i.e. snake oil salesman, scam artist)\"?\n\nThe poll will be open for 1 month; if the majority of votes say \"YES\", this question will resolve to \"YES\", if not, it will resolve to \"NO\".","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-04-19T13:50:47.943000Z","end_date":"2030-02-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6770.293972502121,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.205774307250977,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["technology-default","ai","sam-altman"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"YES","top_outcome_probability":0.514849,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.087263Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.087263Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/c5c9/will-sam-altman-be-considered-a-gri","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"cdef8aac9767","event_id":"3PB3VZbyPG6S4bEVTyVc","slug":null,"question":"YES","group_item_title":"YES","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.514849,0.485151],"probability":0.514849,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-04-19T13:50:47.943000Z","end_date":"2030-02-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":3.479572057723999,"liquidity":850.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T14:36:14.036261Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T14:36:09.354320Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/c5c9/will-sam-altman-be-considered-a-gri","event_title":"Will Sam Altman be considered a grifter by 2030?","chart_24h":[0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849,0.514849]},{"source":"manifold","id":"f806253c37d7","event_id":"3PB3VZbyPG6S4bEVTyVc","slug":null,"question":"NO","group_item_title":"NO","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.485151,0.514849],"probability":0.485151,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-04-19T13:50:47.943000Z","end_date":"2030-02-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":50.00000000000001,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T14:36:14.036261Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T14:36:09.354320Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/c5c9/will-sam-altman-be-considered-a-gri","event_title":"Will Sam Altman be considered a grifter by 2030?","chart_24h":[0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151,0.485151]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/3PB3VZbyPG6S4bEVTyVc","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:48:07.150633Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Sam Altman be considered a grifter by 2030?\" — top market at 51% probability across 2 outcomes","source_url":null}}