{"source":"manifold","id":"3Uf28BLA3QdB3jEdynid","ticker":null,"slug":"will-climate-change-decimate-humans","title":"Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?","description":"If climate-based disasters, including their chain reactions (drought -> famine; sea level rises -> migration -> disease; etc.), cause a 10% reduction (\"decimation\") of humans by the close date this resolves YES. Otherwise NO after close.\n\n10% reduction might mean any one or mix of factors:\n\noutright deaths\n\ndecrease in fertility causing population decline w/in timeframe\n\nreduction in population replacement curves, over the global average\n\netc.\n\nOur baseline for decrease in population not due to extraordinary deaths will be framed around the 2022 UN Projections (currently located here). This is not the defining point of truth if solid analysis and data comes to light, especially considering that the UN already takes some climate trends into account, but it's a great indicator of unexpected change, such as if life expectancy, fertility, or replacement rates drop precipitously in later versions of their projections. See also the OWID data linked in this comment.\n\nSome 2050 numbers from the 2022 projections:\n\n9.7 billion humans\n\n16.4% aged 65+\n\nFertility (births per woman): 2.1\n\nLife expectancy: 77.2; 74.8 (M), 79.8 (F)\n\n---\n\n2050 (this): @/Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans \n\n2070: @/Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans-9f63de4b27a2 \n\n2090: @/Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans-a6501c666cd9 ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-31T06:40:54.562000Z","end_date":"2050-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":95688.00660419109,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":49.37736129760742,"liquidity":4280.75,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.096137,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?","top_outcome_probability":0.096137,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-07T14:40:07.566218Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T14:40:07.566218Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans","chart_24h":[0.096137,0.096137],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"3Uf28BLA3QdB3jEdynid","event_id":"3Uf28BLA3QdB3jEdynid","slug":"will-climate-change-decimate-humans","question":"Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?","group_item_title":null,"description":"If climate-based disasters, including their chain reactions (drought -> famine; sea level rises -> migration -> disease; etc.), cause a 10% reduction (\"decimation\") of humans by the close date this resolves YES. Otherwise NO after close.\n\n10% reduction might mean any one or mix of factors:\n\noutright deaths\n\ndecrease in fertility causing population decline w/in timeframe\n\nreduction in population replacement curves, over the global average\n\netc.\n\nOur baseline for decrease in population not due to extraordinary deaths will be framed around the 2022 UN Projections (currently located here). This is not the defining point of truth if solid analysis and data comes to light, especially considering that the UN already takes some climate trends into account, but it's a great indicator of unexpected change, such as if life expectancy, fertility, or replacement rates drop precipitously in later versions of their projections. See also the OWID data linked in this comment.\n\nSome 2050 numbers from the 2022 projections:\n\n9.7 billion humans\n\n16.4% aged 65+\n\nFertility (births per woman): 2.1\n\nLife expectancy: 77.2; 74.8 (M), 79.8 (F)\n\n---\n\n2050 (this): @/Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans \n\n2070: @/Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans-9f63de4b27a2 \n\n2090: @/Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans-a6501c666cd9 ","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.096137,0.903863],"probability":0.096137,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-31T06:40:54.562000Z","end_date":"2050-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":95688.00660419109,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":49.37736129760742,"liquidity":4280.75,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T16:53:17.571545Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T14:38:03.395839Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans","event_title":"Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?","chart_24h":[0.096137,0.096137]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/3Uf28BLA3QdB3jEdynid","as_of":"2026-06-10T15:14:18.485303Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?\" — top market at 10% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}