{"source":"manifold","id":"3wT79aRP5oLSlNWdp4n3","ticker":null,"slug":"will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-51d476bf5275","title":"Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2100?","description":"Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2100, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a single or small (<50) finite number of large structures occupying 1% of the available angles), although it does not necessarily need to include other orbits (e.g. polar). If it occupies a ring around the sun, then both a swarm or a single monolithic structure qualify in the context of this question.\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-498a9441b3bf \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-0b0b9fe48958 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-655a4defd440 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-7ffebd1e0ff5 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-082e239054e0 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-897d2cf9e325 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-51d476bf5275 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-d3e1ad8967f8 \n\nImage credits: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dyson_Sphere_Render.png\n\nImage source: Image courtesy of Kevin M. Gill on Flickr, licensed under CC BY 2.0. Available at: https://flickr.com/photos/53460575@N03/29401385502","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fee3lqV4PZJ.png?alt=media&token=934111bf-3166-4d0e-8b6b-92b0cc01d084","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-26T18:00:34.486000Z","end_date":"2100-03-02T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21811.74107783814,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.42425537109375,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.19,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2100?","top_outcome_probability":0.19,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-09T18:22:57.197653Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T18:22:57.197653Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-51d476bf5275","chart_24h":[0.19,0.19],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"3wT79aRP5oLSlNWdp4n3","event_id":"3wT79aRP5oLSlNWdp4n3","slug":"will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-51d476bf5275","question":"Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2100?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2100, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a single or small (<50) finite number of large structures occupying 1% of the available angles), although it does not necessarily need to include other orbits (e.g. polar). If it occupies a ring around the sun, then both a swarm or a single monolithic structure qualify in the context of this question.\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-498a9441b3bf \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-0b0b9fe48958 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-655a4defd440 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-7ffebd1e0ff5 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-082e239054e0 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-897d2cf9e325 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-51d476bf5275 (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-d3e1ad8967f8 \n\nImage credits: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dyson_Sphere_Render.png\n\nImage source: Image courtesy of Kevin M. Gill on Flickr, licensed under CC BY 2.0. Available at: https://flickr.com/photos/53460575@N03/29401385502","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fee3lqV4PZJ.png?alt=media&token=934111bf-3166-4d0e-8b6b-92b0cc01d084","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.19,0.81],"probability":0.19,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-26T18:00:34.486000Z","end_date":"2100-03-02T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21811.74107783814,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":37.42425537109375,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-27T17:22:28.881847Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-09T18:21:57.417838Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-51d476bf5275","event_title":"Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2100?","chart_24h":[0.19,0.19]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/3wT79aRP5oLSlNWdp4n3","as_of":"2026-07-28T09:04:54.214755Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2100?\" — top market at 19% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}