{"source":"manifold","id":"4GhXvMCAhZsipVPq6gXh","ticker":null,"slug":"will-cnsa-china-land-on-the-moon-by","title":"Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?","description":"claim in tweet says 2029, I gave 1 extra year to make it more interesting: https://nitter.cz/YuqiiQian/status/1629828184081567745#m\n\nFeb 28, 9:45pm: Will CNSA / China land on the moon by 2030? → Will CNSA / China land on the moon by the end of 2030?\n\nFeb 28, 10:35pm: Will CNSA / China land on the moon by the end of 2030? → Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FnoGd_qlQnz.png?alt=media&token=5936169f-1869-4ac2-ad8f-60dd8d324a8b","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-28T18:55:00.183000Z","end_date":"2030-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21300.283746112586,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.78730010986328,"liquidity":1105.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.631676,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.631676,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Isaac228c/will-cnsa-china-land-on-the-moon-by","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"4GhXvMCAhZsipVPq6gXh","event_id":"4GhXvMCAhZsipVPq6gXh","slug":"will-cnsa-china-land-on-the-moon-by","question":"Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"claim in tweet says 2029, I gave 1 extra year to make it more interesting: https://nitter.cz/YuqiiQian/status/1629828184081567745#m\n\nFeb 28, 9:45pm: Will CNSA / China land on the moon by 2030? → Will CNSA / China land on the moon by the end of 2030?\n\nFeb 28, 10:35pm: Will CNSA / China land on the moon by the end of 2030? → Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FnoGd_qlQnz.png?alt=media&token=5936169f-1869-4ac2-ad8f-60dd8d324a8b","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.631676,0.368324],"probability":0.631676,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-02-28T18:55:00.183000Z","end_date":"2030-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21300.283746112586,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.78730010986328,"liquidity":1105.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","World"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T10:19:15.387484Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Isaac228c/will-cnsa-china-land-on-the-moon-by","event_title":"Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/4GhXvMCAhZsipVPq6gXh","as_of":"2026-09-08T11:25:51.512261Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?\" — top market at 63% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}