{"source":"manifold","id":"4cmpmKPupyxvKv74I7Wf","ticker":null,"slug":"will-russia-launch-a-military-invas-ae19d7c21e45","title":"Will Russia launch a military invasion of a NATO country by 2033?","description":null,"image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Shalun%2F1c7d0f6bdb5d.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-23T13:56:33.348000Z","end_date":"2033-01-01T20:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25908.622801034773,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.245967864990234,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.311006,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Russia launch a military invasion of a NATO country by 2033?","top_outcome_probability":0.311006,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-08-14T02:17:28.183331Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-14T02:17:28.183331Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Shalun/will-russia-launch-a-military-invas-ae19d7c21e45","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"4cmpmKPupyxvKv74I7Wf","event_id":"4cmpmKPupyxvKv74I7Wf","slug":"will-russia-launch-a-military-invas-ae19d7c21e45","question":"Will Russia launch a military invasion of a NATO country by 2033?","group_item_title":null,"description":null,"image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Shalun%2F1c7d0f6bdb5d.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.311006,0.688994],"probability":0.311006,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-23T13:56:33.348000Z","end_date":"2033-01-01T20:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25908.622801034773,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.245967864990234,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-08-28T18:07:00.828114Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-14T02:14:21.799194Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Shalun/will-russia-launch-a-military-invas-ae19d7c21e45","event_title":"Will Russia launch a military invasion of a NATO country by 2033?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/4cmpmKPupyxvKv74I7Wf","as_of":"2026-09-08T23:02:27.309616Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Russia launch a military invasion of a NATO country by 2033?\" — top market at 31% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}