{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/4jXeV1fX6R9JJEgcSMER","as_of":"2026-10-24T07:36:21.988873Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?\" — 75% as of 2026-10-06 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/4jXeV1fX6R9JJEgcSMER","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-prediction-markets-become-main"},"source":"manifold","id":"4jXeV1fX6R9JJEgcSMER","ticker":null,"slug":"will-prediction-markets-become-main","title":"Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?","description":"Resolves YES if at least one prediction market platform has more than 1 million daily active users by 2028. Also resolves YES if an online sports betting platform has those engagement numbers AND has a substainstial component that is about politics, science, and other real-world events. So for example, I don't think that Betfair currently counts but it might in the future.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-03T03:22:12.413000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":21120.829849208803,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.473331451416016,"liquidity":1075.25,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.746933,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.746933,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-06T00:17:27.265185Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T00:17:27.265185Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-prediction-markets-become-main","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"4jXeV1fX6R9JJEgcSMER","event_id":"4jXeV1fX6R9JJEgcSMER","slug":"will-prediction-markets-become-main","question":"Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves YES if at least one prediction market platform has more than 1 million daily active users by 2028. Also resolves YES if an online sports betting platform has those engagement numbers AND has a substainstial component that is about politics, science, and other real-world events. So for example, I don't think that Betfair currently counts but it might in the future.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.746933,0.253067],"probability":0.746933,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-03T03:22:12.413000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":21120.829849208803,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.473331451416016,"liquidity":1075.25,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T00:14:45.989608Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T00:14:45.989608Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-prediction-markets-become-main","event_title":"Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?","chart_24h":null}]}