{"source":"manifold","id":"51bfwqv8pr","ticker":"51bfwqv8pr","slug":"balance-of-power-who-will-control-t","title":"Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?","description":"Dem means \"Democratic Party.\" GOP means \"Republican Party.\"\n\n[Party] Congress means \"[Party] control of House and Senate.\"\n\nThis market will resolve after all three underlying questions have been resolved.\n\nPresident (Pres): resolves after the AP calls the race.\n\nHouse: resolves after the AP calls party control of the House.\n\nIf there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.\n\nIf at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.\n\nSenate: resolves after the AP calls party control of the Senate.\n\nIf there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (Bernie Sanders is a general example), they will be included as part of party control.\n\nIf at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a hung chamber where the Associated Press cannot determine party control, the market will wait to resolve until control is established and one of the answer options becomes true.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/JonasVollmer/jzu2oj2foh.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-19T00:51:39.023000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":490042.5349416044,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":64.37216186523438,"liquidity":15000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"tags":["us-politics","politics-default","2024-us-presidential-election","donald-trump","democratic-party"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"R President, R Senate, D House","top_outcome_probability":0.433869,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-25T15:18:14.588205Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T15:18:14.588205Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/balance-of-power-who-will-control-t","chart_24h":[44.9309093253871,37.907830814737004,8.236263996119078,0.0],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"v2u04hqg08","event_id":"51bfwqv8pr","slug":null,"question":"R President, R Senate, D House","group_item_title":"R President, R Senate, D House","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.433869,0.566131],"probability":0.433869,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-19T00:51:39.024000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":65014.470619965505,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":46.054542541503906,"liquidity":188.98223650461364,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T17:50:14.869867Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:48:43.855882Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/balance-of-power-who-will-control-t","event_title":"Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?","chart_24h":[0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869,0.433869]},{"source":"manifold","id":"5zl2y59b0v","event_id":"51bfwqv8pr","slug":null,"question":"R Pres, D Senate, D House","group_item_title":"R Pres, D Senate, D House","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.414396,0.585604],"probability":0.414396,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-19T00:51:39.024000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":90761.85231099649,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-54.05833110451931,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":48.869140625,"liquidity":188.98223650461364,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T17:50:14.869867Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:48:43.855882Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/balance-of-power-who-will-control-t","event_title":"Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?","chart_24h":[0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396,0.414396]},{"source":"manifold","id":"f3qzwkh0fd","event_id":"51bfwqv8pr","slug":null,"question":"R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta","group_item_title":"R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.136401,0.863599],"probability":0.136401,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-19T00:51:39.024000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":105585.08681231897,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":50.17287826538086,"liquidity":188.98223650461364,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T17:50:14.869867Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:48:43.855882Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/balance-of-power-who-will-control-t","event_title":"Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?","chart_24h":[0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401,0.136401]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2pw58pt0gj","event_id":"51bfwqv8pr","slug":null,"question":"R President, D Senate, R House","group_item_title":"R President, D Senate, R House","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.010494,0.989506],"probability":0.010494,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-19T00:51:39.024000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11676.884599741248,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.88999938964844,"liquidity":188.98223650461364,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T17:50:14.869867Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:48:43.855882Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/balance-of-power-who-will-control-t","event_title":"Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?","chart_24h":[0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494,0.010494]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9zqxr49g5k","event_id":"51bfwqv8pr","slug":null,"question":"D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta","group_item_title":"D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.00368,0.99632],"probability":0.00368,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-19T00:51:39.024000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":296.688479138822,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.16616153717041,"liquidity":188.98223650461364,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T17:50:14.869867Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:48:43.855882Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/balance-of-power-who-will-control-t","event_title":"Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?","chart_24h":[0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368,0.00368]},{"source":"manifold","id":"k3ydpwu5l1","event_id":"51bfwqv8pr","slug":null,"question":"D President, R Senate, D House","group_item_title":"D President, R Senate, D House","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000537,0.999463],"probability":0.000537,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-19T00:51:39.024000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":122.52810628667812,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.698890686035156,"liquidity":188.98223650461364,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T17:50:14.869867Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:48:43.855882Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/balance-of-power-who-will-control-t","event_title":"Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?","chart_24h":[0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537,0.000537]},{"source":"manifold","id":"a7z8kaqiwx","event_id":"51bfwqv8pr","slug":null,"question":"D President, R Senate, R House","group_item_title":"D President, R Senate, R House","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000359,0.999641],"probability":0.000359,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-19T00:51:39.024000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11.60058062203293,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":2.4073069095611572,"liquidity":188.98223650461364,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T17:50:14.869867Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:48:43.855882Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/balance-of-power-who-will-control-t","event_title":"Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?","chart_24h":[0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359,0.000359]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qvrrxwj6u7","event_id":"51bfwqv8pr","slug":null,"question":"D President, D Senate, R House","group_item_title":"D President, D Senate, R House","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000264,0.999736],"probability":0.000264,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-09-19T00:51:39.024000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":19.2793725238887,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":3.396449327468872,"liquidity":188.98223650461364,"categories":["Politics","Elections"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T17:50:14.869867Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:48:43.855882Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/balance-of-power-who-will-control-t","event_title":"Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?","chart_24h":[0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264,0.000264]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/51bfwqv8pr","as_of":"2026-07-25T17:54:51.634194Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?\" — top market at 43% probability across 8 outcomes","source_url":null}}