{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/59lI0yupLA","as_of":"2026-10-12T08:23:10.306635Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?\" — 96% as of 2026-10-12 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/59lI0yupLA","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/TimothyJohnson5c16/will-an-ai-make-a-new-breakthrough"},"source":"manifold","id":"59lI0yupLA","ticker":null,"slug":"will-an-ai-make-a-new-breakthrough","title":"Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?","description":"Resolves YES if a breakthrough-level problem from the Epoch AI FrontierMath Open Problems benchmark is solved.\n\nThe benchmark classifies problems into four difficulty levels, with Breakthrough being the highest.\n\nNote that to avoid contamination solved problems will be removed from the benchmark. So a solution only counts for this market if an AI solves the problem before any human solution is found.\n\nUpdate 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Scope of problems: Includes any future breakthrough-level problems added to the benchmark, not just those currently listed.\n\nAI vs human collaboration: The creator will defer to Epoch AI's determination of whether AI gets credit for a solution, but will use their own judgment if Epoch AI is unclear.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-27T22:23:38.838000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20205.016419773005,"volume_24hr":2332.5007285216775,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":47.189720153808594,"normalized_volume":36.167606353759766,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["ai","technology-default","ai-impacts","openai","technical-ai-timelines"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.959662,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.959662,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.09022700000000006,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":2132.5007285216775,"updated_at":"2026-10-12T08:01:31.563117Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-12T08:01:31.563117Z","added_at":"2026-09-18T23:48:18.619940Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/TimothyJohnson5c16/will-an-ai-make-a-new-breakthrough","chart_24h":[0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.978948,0.978948,0.978948,0.978948,0.978948,0.978948,0.959662,0.959662,0.959662],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"59lI0yupLA","event_id":"59lI0yupLA","slug":"will-an-ai-make-a-new-breakthrough","question":"Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves YES if a breakthrough-level problem from the Epoch AI FrontierMath Open Problems benchmark is solved.\n\nThe benchmark classifies problems into four difficulty levels, with Breakthrough being the highest.\n\nNote that to avoid contamination solved problems will be removed from the benchmark. So a solution only counts for this market if an AI solves the problem before any human solution is found.\n\nUpdate 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Scope of problems: Includes any future breakthrough-level problems added to the benchmark, not just those currently listed.\n\nAI vs human collaboration: The creator will defer to Epoch AI's determination of whether AI gets credit for a solution, but will use their own judgment if Epoch AI is unclear.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.959662,0.040338],"probability":0.959662,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-27T22:23:38.838000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":20205.016419773005,"volume_24hr":2332.5007285216775,"prob_24h_change":0.09022700000000006,"volume_24h_change":2132.5007285216775,"normalized_vol_24hr":64.73474884033203,"normalized_volume":36.167606353759766,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-12T08:00:40.564224Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-12T08:00:40.564224Z","added_at":"2026-09-18T23:48:18.619940Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/TimothyJohnson5c16/will-an-ai-make-a-new-breakthrough","event_title":"Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?","chart_24h":[0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.869435,0.978948,0.978948,0.978948,0.978948,0.978948,0.978948,0.959662,0.959662,0.959662]}]}