{"source":"manifold","id":"5AkYuyYYboeJmvclql21","ticker":null,"slug":"will-keir-starmer-have-a-full-term","title":"Will Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?","description":"Resolves No if any of the following actions occur:\n\nKeir Starmer fails to form a parliamentary majority in the 2024 election as seen on Wikipedia (2019 equivalent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) \n\n\nKeir Starmer resigns or is deposed by a vote of no confidence before the next General Election is scheduled to be held (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election).\n\n\n\nUpdate 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If a general election is held before 2024 and Keir Starmer maintains his parliamentary majority, the question will resolve to a yes.\n\nIf he loses his parliamentary majority in an early election, the question will resolve to a no.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/XamDingdong%2Fb4ab45584f4c.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-15T09:06:21.033000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9026.540159607343,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.106830596923828,"liquidity":210.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.000222,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?","top_outcome_probability":0.000222,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-15T09:51:54.256021Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-15T09:51:54.256021Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/XamDingdong/will-keir-starmer-have-a-full-term","chart_24h":[0.000222,0.000222],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"5AkYuyYYboeJmvclql21","event_id":"5AkYuyYYboeJmvclql21","slug":"will-keir-starmer-have-a-full-term","question":"Will Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves No if any of the following actions occur:\n\nKeir Starmer fails to form a parliamentary majority in the 2024 election as seen on Wikipedia (2019 equivalent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) \n\n\nKeir Starmer resigns or is deposed by a vote of no confidence before the next General Election is scheduled to be held (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election).\n\n\n\nUpdate 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If a general election is held before 2024 and Keir Starmer maintains his parliamentary majority, the question will resolve to a yes.\n\nIf he loses his parliamentary majority in an early election, the question will resolve to a no.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/XamDingdong%2Fb4ab45584f4c.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000222,0.999778],"probability":0.000222,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-15T09:06:21.033000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":9026.540159607343,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":31.106830596923828,"liquidity":210.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T19:55:05.273512Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-15T09:50:19.250305Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/XamDingdong/will-keir-starmer-have-a-full-term","event_title":"Will Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?","chart_24h":[0.000222,0.000222]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/5AkYuyYYboeJmvclql21","as_of":"2026-07-25T22:12:22.412315Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?\" — top market at 0% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}