{"source":"manifold","id":"5E2gXZfz4RDMVgLPma4h","ticker":null,"slug":"will-china-ever-surpass-us-gdp","title":"Will China ever surpass US gdp?","description":"Sep 5, 9:58am: Resolves NO if China is passed as the second largest economy (or if either China &/ the US cease to exist)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-09-04T20:51:15.519000Z","end_date":"2102-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20445.095132454684,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.98268508911133,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.61758,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will China ever surpass US gdp?","top_outcome_probability":0.61758,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T09:59:26.085707Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T09:59:26.085707Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-china-ever-surpass-us-gdp","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"5E2gXZfz4RDMVgLPma4h","event_id":"5E2gXZfz4RDMVgLPma4h","slug":"will-china-ever-surpass-us-gdp","question":"Will China ever surpass US gdp?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Sep 5, 9:58am: Resolves NO if China is passed as the second largest economy (or if either China &/ the US cease to exist)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.61758,0.38242],"probability":0.61758,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-09-04T20:51:15.519000Z","end_date":"2102-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":20445.095132454684,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.98268508911133,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["China","United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T13:43:28.010693Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T09:56:38.780262Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-china-ever-surpass-us-gdp","event_title":"Will China ever surpass US gdp?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/5E2gXZfz4RDMVgLPma4h","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:11:52.015580Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will China ever surpass US gdp?\" — top market at 62% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}