{"source":"manifold","id":"5M2I0YYBYCstkwDI3yDK","ticker":null,"slug":"will-openai-pay-scientific-publishe","title":"Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?","description":"Will OpenAI make a deal to pay a major science publisher such as Elsevier for explicit access / training rights on their papers, before the end of 2025?\n\nCloses at end of 2026 to allow for a one-year lag in when we learn about it.  Resolves YES if such a deal has already taken place.\n\nVide this minor difference of guesses between myself (Yudkowsky) and Sabine Hossenfelder.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-06-11T16:41:39.086000Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":87811.6714766482,"volume_24hr":10032.000000000002,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":75.14358520507812,"normalized_volume":47.915916442871094,"liquidity":11000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["openai","ai"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.030046,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?","top_outcome_probability":0.030046,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-24T15:38:39.002993Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-24T15:38:39.002993Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-openai-pay-scientific-publishe","chart_24h":[0.030046,0.030046,0.030046,0.030046,0.030046],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"5M2I0YYBYCstkwDI3yDK","event_id":"5M2I0YYBYCstkwDI3yDK","slug":"will-openai-pay-scientific-publishe","question":"Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Will OpenAI make a deal to pay a major science publisher such as Elsevier for explicit access / training rights on their papers, before the end of 2025?\n\nCloses at end of 2026 to allow for a one-year lag in when we learn about it.  Resolves YES if such a deal has already taken place.\n\nVide this minor difference of guesses between myself (Yudkowsky) and Sabine Hossenfelder.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.030046,0.969954],"probability":0.030046,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-06-11T16:41:39.086000Z","end_date":"2027-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":87811.6714766482,"volume_24hr":10032.000000000002,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":75.16242980957031,"normalized_volume":47.915916442871094,"liquidity":11000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-24T15:38:12.970020Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-24T15:38:12.970020Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-openai-pay-scientific-publishe","event_title":"Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?","chart_24h":[0.030046,0.030046,0.030046,0.030046,0.030046]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/5M2I0YYBYCstkwDI3yDK","as_of":"2026-09-24T15:39:52.509353Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?\" — top market at 3% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}