{"source":"manifold","id":"5M7F5ApF8SH9osu8DGJb","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd","title":"Will we get AGI before 2035?","description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2035\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2035:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-v \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3fcd58236f90 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-89a5bfdee8ca \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-2a28875c1c26 \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-0a7d585d5f97 \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-1c5b2e348e1d \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-p-a35e6823fbba \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-35fc264bbc88 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-46410d8053fa@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-ab3eca7983aa \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ece7abf70bde \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-8ae988ef1cac \n\n \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-lunar-163b9107ef15 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-cc226795c047 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-285b5811deab \n\nOther points of reference for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FOMfo1C4QtJ.png?alt=media&token=5ae1ca77-c34f-4607-96f2-c87e0c5f61c6","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-01T23:20:28.761000Z","end_date":"2035-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":29272.973099023297,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.705841064453125,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.633414,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get AGI before 2035?","top_outcome_probability":0.633414,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-100.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-09T18:28:56.248808Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T18:28:56.248808Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd","chart_24h":[0.633414,0.633414,0.633414,0.633414,0.633414,0.633414,0.633414,0.633414,0.633414,0.633414,0.633414],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"5M7F5ApF8SH9osu8DGJb","event_id":"5M7F5ApF8SH9osu8DGJb","slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd","question":"Will we get AGI before 2035?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2035\n\nHere are markets with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd (this question)\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther questions for 2035:\n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-v \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3fcd58236f90 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-89a5bfdee8ca \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-2a28875c1c26 \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-0a7d585d5f97 \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-1c5b2e348e1d \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-p-a35e6823fbba \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-35fc264bbc88 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-46410d8053fa@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-ab3eca7983aa \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ece7abf70bde \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-8ae988ef1cac \n\n \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-lunar-163b9107ef15 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-cc226795c047 \n\n@/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-285b5811deab \n\nOther points of reference for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FOMfo1C4QtJ.png?alt=media&token=5ae1ca77-c34f-4607-96f2-c87e0c5f61c6","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.633414,0.366586],"probability":0.633414,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-12-01T23:20:28.761000Z","end_date":"2035-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":29272.973099023297,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-100.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.705841064453125,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:13:09.139629Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T18:26:41.333877Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd","event_title":"Will we get AGI before 2035?","chart_24h":[0.633414,0.633414,0.633414,0.633414,0.633414,0.633414,0.633414,0.633414,0.633414,0.633414,0.633414]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/5M7F5ApF8SH9osu8DGJb","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:37:07.877422Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we get AGI before 2035?\" — top market at 63% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}