{"source":"manifold","id":"5RPszRzUNl","ticker":null,"slug":"elon-musk-significantly-backs-a-thi","title":"Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?","description":"From \n\n[tweet]Forecasters estimated the probability that Elon Musk would significantly back a third party in the midterm elections to be 27% (range: 10% to 50%). This would involve committing significant sums of money (>$100M), making public endorsements comparable to those he made during the 2024 Presidential campaign, or even setting up a third party himself.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, these are considered central examples of the kind of clear backing that would resolve this market positively.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-10T01:00:33.302000Z","end_date":"2026-11-05T00:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25230.439631458852,"volume_24hr":2749.87437106623,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":56.462501525878906,"normalized_volume":37.88603591918945,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["us-politics","tesla","twitter","elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e","politics-default"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.01,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?","top_outcome_probability":0.01,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:23:30.442623Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:23:30.442623Z","added_at":"2026-10-04T03:48:25.297624Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/elon-musk-significantly-backs-a-thi","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"5RPszRzUNl","event_id":"5RPszRzUNl","slug":"elon-musk-significantly-backs-a-thi","question":"Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?","group_item_title":null,"description":"From \n\n[tweet]Forecasters estimated the probability that Elon Musk would significantly back a third party in the midterm elections to be 27% (range: 10% to 50%). This would involve committing significant sums of money (>$100M), making public endorsements comparable to those he made during the 2024 Presidential campaign, or even setting up a third party himself.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, these are considered central examples of the kind of clear backing that would resolve this market positively.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.01,0.99],"probability":0.01,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-10T01:00:33.302000Z","end_date":"2026-11-05T00:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25230.439631458852,"volume_24hr":2749.87437106623,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":56.462501525878906,"normalized_volume":37.88603591918945,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-04T07:23:04.924731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-04T07:23:04.924731Z","added_at":"2026-10-04T03:48:25.297624Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/elon-musk-significantly-backs-a-thi","event_title":"Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?","chart_24h":[0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/5RPszRzUNl","as_of":"2026-10-04T07:35:30.601084Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?\" — top market at 1% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}