{"source":"manifold","id":"5dA0gu6syy","ticker":null,"slug":"will-anthropic-make-claude-mythos-b","title":"Will Anthropic make Claude Mythos broadly available before July 1, 2026?","description":"This market resolves YES if Anthropic makes a model called Claude Mythos, Mythos, or a clear successor with `Mythos` in the official name broadly available before 2026-07-01 00:00 UTC. Broadly available means at least one of: listed in Anthropic's public model docs for ordinary API use; available in the standard Claude.ai model picker to Pro/Max/Team/Enterprise users generally; or announced by Anthropic as publicly available beyond a narrow invite-only, research-preview, Glasswing-partner, or safety-evaluation cohort. The April 2026 Mythos Preview / Project Glasswing announcement by itself is NOT enough for YES unless Anthropic later broadens access as described above. Limited private pilots, partner-only access, red-team access, or safety research access resolve NO unless they become broad access before the deadline. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Anthropic news: https://www.anthropic.com/news - Claude Mythos Preview technical page: https://red.anthropic.com/2026/mythos-preview/ - Anthropic model docs: https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/about-claude/models/overview\n\nUpdate 2026-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If only Claude Fable (not Mythos) is released before July 1, 2026, this market resolves NO, unless a compelling argument is made that Fable qualifies as a successor with 'Mythos' in the official name.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-21T09:15:42.193000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5183.945753051486,"volume_24hr":4123.905306787118,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.607810974121094,"normalized_volume":27.464815139770508,"liquidity":100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.021972,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Anthropic make Claude Mythos broadly available before July 1, 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.021972,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.011895999999999999,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-92.1320699643602,"updated_at":"2026-06-10T15:00:09.543813Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T15:00:09.543813Z","added_at":"2026-06-10T11:30:43.825803Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-anthropic-make-claude-mythos-b","chart_24h":[0.010076,0.010076,0.010076,0.010076,0.010076],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"5dA0gu6syy","event_id":"5dA0gu6syy","slug":"will-anthropic-make-claude-mythos-b","question":"Will Anthropic make Claude Mythos broadly available before July 1, 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market resolves YES if Anthropic makes a model called Claude Mythos, Mythos, or a clear successor with `Mythos` in the official name broadly available before 2026-07-01 00:00 UTC. Broadly available means at least one of: listed in Anthropic's public model docs for ordinary API use; available in the standard Claude.ai model picker to Pro/Max/Team/Enterprise users generally; or announced by Anthropic as publicly available beyond a narrow invite-only, research-preview, Glasswing-partner, or safety-evaluation cohort. The April 2026 Mythos Preview / Project Glasswing announcement by itself is NOT enough for YES unless Anthropic later broadens access as described above. Limited private pilots, partner-only access, red-team access, or safety research access resolve NO unless they become broad access before the deadline. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Anthropic news: https://www.anthropic.com/news - Claude Mythos Preview technical page: https://red.anthropic.com/2026/mythos-preview/ - Anthropic model docs: https://docs.anthropic.com/en/docs/about-claude/models/overview\n\nUpdate 2026-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If only Claude Fable (not Mythos) is released before July 1, 2026, this market resolves NO, unless a compelling argument is made that Fable qualifies as a successor with 'Mythos' in the official name.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.021972,0.978028],"probability":0.021972,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-21T09:15:42.193000Z","end_date":"2026-07-01T00:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5183.945753051486,"volume_24hr":4123.905306787118,"prob_24h_change":0.011895999999999999,"volume_24h_change":-92.1320699643602,"normalized_vol_24hr":36.607810974121094,"normalized_volume":27.464815139770508,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T15:00:11.119847Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T14:59:29.131339Z","added_at":"2026-06-10T11:30:43.825803Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-anthropic-make-claude-mythos-b","event_title":"Will Anthropic make Claude Mythos broadly available before July 1, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.010076,0.010076,0.010076,0.010076,0.010076]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/5dA0gu6syy","as_of":"2026-06-10T15:15:26.613110Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Anthropic make Claude Mythos broadly available before July 1, 2026?\" — top market at 2% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}