{"source":"manifold","id":"5qEMe0gvHrFdM3zzUcNh","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-united-states-experience-a","title":"Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?","description":"To qualify, the crisis should be listed here:\n\nhttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_crisis\n\nIf Wikipedia becomes unreliable, defunct, or does not list a crisis but there's a broad consensus that there has been one, then I'm open to resolving according to a different source. \n\nUpdate 2025-02-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Broad Consensus Clarification\n\nIf Wikipedia lists a constitutional crisis but there is a broad consensus that it has not occurred, the resolution may be based on a different, less biased source.\n\nA broad consensus requires more than strong disagreement (for example, stark differences between left and right perspectives); in such a case, Wikipedia remains the guiding source.\n\nOngoing events mentioned on Wikipedia do not yet qualify as a full-fledged constitutional crisis.\n\nUpdate 2025-04-26 (PST): - Factual descriptions required: The Wikipedia entry must directly state that the event is a constitutional crisis. Phrases like \"some have argued\" do not qualify as a listing for resolution purposes. (AI summary of creator comment)\n\nUpdate 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution timing procedure: If the situation is evolving at market close such that there is significant doubt whether an event that occurred before close will be recorded in Wikipedia as a constitutional crisis, resolution may be delayed until the matter is settled. In such cases, the market will resolve once the relevant Wikipedia entry is stable in the resultant resolution for a week.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FsEfkID4H4N.webp?alt=media&token=9cfe0d01-4b31-49d9-8544-965667adc7f9","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-10T08:22:29.714000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T16:01:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":48507.8506820093,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":43.70098114013672,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.55,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.55,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-05T06:52:54.535805Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T06:52:54.535805Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Ansel/will-the-united-states-experience-a","chart_24h":[0.55,0.55],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"5qEMe0gvHrFdM3zzUcNh","event_id":"5qEMe0gvHrFdM3zzUcNh","slug":"will-the-united-states-experience-a","question":"Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"To qualify, the crisis should be listed here:\n\nhttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_crisis\n\nIf Wikipedia becomes unreliable, defunct, or does not list a crisis but there's a broad consensus that there has been one, then I'm open to resolving according to a different source. \n\nUpdate 2025-02-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Broad Consensus Clarification\n\nIf Wikipedia lists a constitutional crisis but there is a broad consensus that it has not occurred, the resolution may be based on a different, less biased source.\n\nA broad consensus requires more than strong disagreement (for example, stark differences between left and right perspectives); in such a case, Wikipedia remains the guiding source.\n\nOngoing events mentioned on Wikipedia do not yet qualify as a full-fledged constitutional crisis.\n\nUpdate 2025-04-26 (PST): - Factual descriptions required: The Wikipedia entry must directly state that the event is a constitutional crisis. Phrases like \"some have argued\" do not qualify as a listing for resolution purposes. (AI summary of creator comment)\n\nUpdate 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution timing procedure: If the situation is evolving at market close such that there is significant doubt whether an event that occurred before close will be recorded in Wikipedia as a constitutional crisis, resolution may be delayed until the matter is settled. In such cases, the market will resolve once the relevant Wikipedia entry is stable in the resultant resolution for a week.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FsEfkID4H4N.webp?alt=media&token=9cfe0d01-4b31-49d9-8544-965667adc7f9","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.55,0.45],"probability":0.55,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-10T08:22:29.714000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T16:01:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":48507.8506820093,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":43.70098114013672,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T10:22:33.454633Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T06:50:48.038347Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Ansel/will-the-united-states-experience-a","event_title":"Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?","chart_24h":[0.55,0.55]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/5qEMe0gvHrFdM3zzUcNh","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:16:34.096181Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?\" — top market at 55% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}