{"source":"manifold","id":"5tA9tdRUOP","ticker":null,"slug":"will-donald-trump-issue-elon-musk-a","title":"Will Donald Trump issue Elon Musk a Presidential Pardon while he is in office","description":"The pardon can be for a specific act or crime or could be a blanket pardon. \n\nBackground Presidential pardons are a constitutional power granted to the President of the United States under Article II, Section 2. A pardon can be issued preemptively (before any charges or conviction) or after conviction, and can be specific to certain crimes or a blanket pardon covering a period of time. Currently, there are no public criminal charges against Elon Musk that would require a presidential pardon.\n\nResolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump, while serving as President of the United States, issues any form of presidential pardon (specific or blanket) to Elon Musk. The market will resolve NO if Trump's presidential term ends without issuing a pardon to Musk. \n\nFor resolution purposes:\n\nThe pardon must be officially issued through proper legal channels\n\nPublic statements or promises about future pardons do not count\n\nThe pardon must explicitly name Elon Musk as a recipient\n\nIf Trump issues a broad pardon that includes multiple individuals including Musk, this would still resolve YES\n\nConsiderations\n\nPresidential pardons can only apply to federal crimes, not state-level charges\n\nPardons can be issued preemptively, even if no charges have been filed","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/MichaelSinko/nLNsSsULC9.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-02-06T20:52:08.142000Z","end_date":"2029-01-22T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14571.869166235323,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.50244140625,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.178266,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Donald Trump issue Elon Musk a Presidential Pardon while he is in office","top_outcome_probability":0.178266,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-04T17:51:01.404807Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-04T17:51:01.404807Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MichaelSinko/will-donald-trump-issue-elon-musk-a","chart_24h":[0.178266,0.178266],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"5tA9tdRUOP","event_id":"5tA9tdRUOP","slug":"will-donald-trump-issue-elon-musk-a","question":"Will Donald Trump issue Elon Musk a Presidential Pardon while he is in office","group_item_title":null,"description":"The pardon can be for a specific act or crime or could be a blanket pardon. \n\nBackground Presidential pardons are a constitutional power granted to the President of the United States under Article II, Section 2. A pardon can be issued preemptively (before any charges or conviction) or after conviction, and can be specific to certain crimes or a blanket pardon covering a period of time. Currently, there are no public criminal charges against Elon Musk that would require a presidential pardon.\n\nResolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump, while serving as President of the United States, issues any form of presidential pardon (specific or blanket) to Elon Musk. The market will resolve NO if Trump's presidential term ends without issuing a pardon to Musk. \n\nFor resolution purposes:\n\nThe pardon must be officially issued through proper legal channels\n\nPublic statements or promises about future pardons do not count\n\nThe pardon must explicitly name Elon Musk as a recipient\n\nIf Trump issues a broad pardon that includes multiple individuals including Musk, this would still resolve YES\n\nConsiderations\n\nPresidential pardons can only apply to federal crimes, not state-level charges\n\nPardons can be issued preemptively, even if no charges have been filed","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/MichaelSinko/nLNsSsULC9.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.178266,0.821734],"probability":0.178266,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-02-06T20:52:08.142000Z","end_date":"2029-01-22T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14571.869166235323,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.50244140625,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T21:40:11.569994Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-04T17:50:12.394620Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MichaelSinko/will-donald-trump-issue-elon-musk-a","event_title":"Will Donald Trump issue Elon Musk a Presidential Pardon while he is in office","chart_24h":[0.178266,0.178266]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/5tA9tdRUOP","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:36:45.743551Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Donald Trump issue Elon Musk a Presidential Pardon while he is in office\" — top market at 18% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}