{"source":"manifold","id":"5uLIPt5pll","ticker":null,"slug":"will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of-CQRuROP528","title":"Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027?","description":"Same resolution criteria as: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of\n\nExcept, one year later. \n\nThis market will resolve YES if:\n\nLuigi Mangione is convicted of murder (any degree) in connection with Brian Thompson's death by a court of law before January 1st, 2027.\n\nLuigi Mangione pleads guilty to murder charges in connection with Brian Thompson's death before January 1st, 2027.\n\nThe market will resolve NO if:\n\nMangione is acquitted of murder charges\n\nNo conviction is reached by January 1st, 2027\n\nCharges are dropped or reduced to lesser charges (e.g., manslaughter)\n\nMangione is never formally charged with murder\n\nMangione dies before a conviction is reached","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-18T02:16:56.346000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":61874.105351295286,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.84121322631836,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.04,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.04,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-1176.102723380085,"updated_at":"2026-10-06T00:17:27.265185Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T00:17:27.265185Z","added_at":"2026-08-14T01:20:18.485332Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Arcmage7000/will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of-CQRuROP528","chart_24h":[0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"5uLIPt5pll","event_id":"5uLIPt5pll","slug":"will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of-CQRuROP528","question":"Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Same resolution criteria as: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of\n\nExcept, one year later. \n\nThis market will resolve YES if:\n\nLuigi Mangione is convicted of murder (any degree) in connection with Brian Thompson's death by a court of law before January 1st, 2027.\n\nLuigi Mangione pleads guilty to murder charges in connection with Brian Thompson's death before January 1st, 2027.\n\nThe market will resolve NO if:\n\nMangione is acquitted of murder charges\n\nNo conviction is reached by January 1st, 2027\n\nCharges are dropped or reduced to lesser charges (e.g., manslaughter)\n\nMangione is never formally charged with murder\n\nMangione dies before a conviction is reached","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.04,0.96],"probability":0.04,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-18T02:16:56.346000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":61874.105351295286,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-1176.102723380085,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.84121322631836,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-06T00:14:45.989608Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-06T00:14:45.989608Z","added_at":"2026-08-14T01:20:18.485332Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Arcmage7000/will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of-CQRuROP528","event_title":"Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027?","chart_24h":[0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/5uLIPt5pll","as_of":"2026-10-06T06:21:44.834193Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027?\" — top market at 4% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}