{"source":"manifold","id":"5uctcL2zNU","ticker":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":"world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","description":"I will not bet on this market.\n\nPlease feel free to add your own prop bets to the market.  Questions may be broad (Nuclear Weapon used in aggression) or specific (Trump's June 22, 2025 Cease-fire declaration is not violated for at least 7 days), but should have clear resolution criteria.\n\nThis is a market for prop bets related to any and all military/political conflicts worldwide from 2025 through the end of 2027.\n\nI will do my best to quickly resolve questions correctly in a timely fashion.  I tend to pay attention to international news.\n\nAll questions, unless specifying a date, must be assumed to have \"by midnight UTC ±0 on 31 Dec 2027\" as part of their resolution criteria. \n\nI will default to the question creator's resolution criteria when necessary.\n\nTo assist in correct and timely resolutions, I encourage traders to post news articles/sources supporting a resolution.\n\nI will edit/remove AI updates that are incorrect and put them under a header for the specific question they pertain to.  If an AI update is placed under a question header, it is safe to assume it correctly reflects question resolution\n\nJordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords\n\nUpdate 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This answer will resolve to YES only if Jordan becomes a signatory of the specific treaty known as the 'Abraham Accords'. Jordan is not currently a signatory.\n\n1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI\n\nUpdate 2025-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about whether a suicide linked to a chatbot would count for a hypothetical prop bet, the creator specified their resolution criteria:\n\nThere must be a direct correlation between the AI's actions and the death.\n\nThe AI must be behaving like a rogue AI (maliciously, unpredictably, or contrary to its programming). An AI acting as it was designed would not meet this bar.\n\nCambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025\n\nUpdate 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the prop bet concerning a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, the creator has specified the resolution criteria:\n\nThis will resolve to YES if the current ceasefire lasts for 7 days.\n\nMarket Start Date\n\nUpdate 2025-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market covers conflicts from June 25, 2025 through the end of 2027.\n\nYahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)\n\nThe creator initially planned to resolve this to NO because Yahya Sinwar is dead and posthumous trials are extremely rare (last known example being Nuremberg Trials)\n\nHowever, the creator has agreed that if a posthumous prosecution is initiated, the market can be re-resolved by moderators\n\nThis means the market may initially resolve NO but could be changed to YES later if posthumous proceedings occur\n\nHumans will extinct\n\nUpdate 2026-01-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The \"Humans will extinct\" answer will NOT be resolved N/A. The creator has been convinced that this question has value and is resolvable as worded, and will keep it open on the market.\n\nFormal declaration of War\n\nUpdate 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For any answer involving a formal declaration of war by the United States:\n\nA statement by Donald Trump (or any President) declaring war does NOT meet the criteria\n\nMust be done through Congress as a legislative declaration of war\n\n\"Formally\" on this market means done through official channels per the pertinent country's laws\n\nIran loses territory\n\nUpdate 2026-03-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This answer will resolve based on internationally recognized border changes. Temporary occupations or withdrawals that do not result in formally recognized changes to Iran's borders would not count.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":72918.69042773002,"volume_24hr":1107.6842946768984,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":31.97567367553711,"normalized_volume":47.06319808959961,"liquidity":27857.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":["geopolitics","politics-default","wars","world-default","middle-east"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026","top_outcome_probability":1.0,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-11T11:30:50.318645Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T11:30:50.318645Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"QEh6sRz0Ul","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat","group_item_title":"Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.933683,0.066317],"probability":0.933683,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1073.1422528631726,"volume_24hr":612.0,"prob_24h_change":0.537494,"volume_24h_change":612.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.79892349243164,"normalized_volume":18.284799575805664,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:30.642061Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.396189,0.933683,0.933683,0.933683,0.933683,0.933683]},{"source":"manifold","id":"N06QNdRQgs","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse \"Brexit\"","group_item_title":"United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse \"Brexit\"","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.334904,0.665096],"probability":0.334904,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T19:24:32.988000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":202.86327294917976,"volume_24hr":33.0,"prob_24h_change":0.147385,"volume_24h_change":33.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":8.089505195617676,"normalized_volume":10.613924026489258,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:30.642061Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.187519,0.334904,0.334904,0.334904,0.334904,0.334904]},{"source":"manifold","id":"C5cOAtNgyc","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack","group_item_title":"Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.334345,0.665655],"probability":0.334345,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10.466802216356028,"volume_24hr":10.0,"prob_24h_change":0.035221,"volume_24h_change":10.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.7404937744140625,"normalized_volume":2.233856439590454,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["European Union"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:30.642061Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.299124,0.334345,0.334345,0.334345,0.334345,0.334345]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6q2cqpuqUI","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","group_item_title":"Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.261253,0.738747],"probability":0.261253,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T20:43:21.618000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":359.6276302907248,"volume_24hr":18.0,"prob_24h_change":0.08125300000000002,"volume_24h_change":18.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":5.639928817749023,"normalized_volume":13.013140678405762,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Lebanon","Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:30.642061Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.261253,0.261253,0.261253,0.261253,0.261253]},{"source":"manifold","id":"QL0P5pPnEc","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote","group_item_title":"The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.144382,0.855618],"probability":0.144382,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":172.0,"volume_24hr":110.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.086314,"volume_24h_change":110.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.428583145141602,"normalized_volume":9.968703269958496,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Canada","Norway","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:30.642061Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.230696,0.144382,0.144382,0.144382,0.144382,0.144382]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6z90L2dhAI","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup","group_item_title":"Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.136379,0.863621],"probability":0.136379,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T17:33:51.363000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":111.0,"volume_24hr":80.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.058728,"volume_24h_change":80.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":12.562539100646973,"normalized_volume":8.357510566711426,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Armenia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:30.642061Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.195107,0.136379,0.136379,0.136379,0.136379,0.136379]},{"source":"manifold","id":"lOZqySzZEz","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","group_item_title":"Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.127233,0.872767],"probability":0.127233,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T20:41:37.851000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":292.52384658904634,"volume_24hr":130.00000000000003,"prob_24h_change":-0.12276699999999999,"volume_24h_change":130.00000000000003,"normalized_vol_24hr":15.461545944213867,"normalized_volume":12.118961334228516,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Jordan","Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:30.642061Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.127233,0.127233,0.127233,0.127233,0.127233]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ylR5g6UOA5","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","group_item_title":"Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.097143,0.902857],"probability":0.097143,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T20:41:52.176000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":390.2979644974319,"volume_24hr":60.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.02001900000000001,"volume_24h_change":60.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":10.993521690368652,"normalized_volume":13.376444816589355,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Qatar","Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:30.642061Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.117162,0.097143,0.097143,0.097143,0.097143,0.097143]},{"source":"manifold","id":"IcPlqN2pch","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory","group_item_title":"Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.064955,0.935045],"probability":0.064955,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-27T21:06:49.210000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":185.84015744186777,"volume_24hr":3.0,"prob_24h_change":0.010536999999999998,"volume_24h_change":3.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":1.250199794769287,"normalized_volume":10.268682479858398,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Canada","United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:30.642061Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.054418,0.064955,0.064955,0.064955,0.064955,0.064955]},{"source":"manifold","id":"5QsC6QQ59C","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Israel annexes 100% of Gaza","group_item_title":"Israel annexes 100% of Gaza","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.057425,0.942575],"probability":0.057425,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T02:29:02.342000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":935.9289559710036,"volume_24hr":45.68429467689839,"prob_24h_change":0.006934999999999997,"volume_24h_change":45.68429467689839,"normalized_vol_24hr":9.609515190124512,"normalized_volume":17.575695037841797,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:30.642061Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.05049,0.057425,0.057425,0.057425,0.057425,0.057425]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qCplRzn2ds","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state","group_item_title":"Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.052537,0.947463],"probability":0.052537,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-09T17:52:22.665000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":221.0,"volume_24hr":6.0,"prob_24h_change":0.019486000000000003,"volume_24h_change":6.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":2.4632818698883057,"normalized_volume":10.956890106201172,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Canada","United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:30.642061Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.033051,0.052537,0.052537,0.052537,0.052537,0.052537]},{"source":"manifold","id":"0zhRQd6l2g","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026","group_item_title":"Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-15T15:25:15.536000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1650.8000905623978,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":20.609203338623047,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2PAOI2q0sU","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela","group_item_title":"United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-08T02:12:29.226000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":996.1639076948568,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.897233963012695,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States","Venezuela"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2lt9ZE6UNp","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)","group_item_title":"Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-26T01:18:14.795000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":1.2051154375076294,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Iran","Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2yn5uI90tL","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore","group_item_title":"India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-19T15:25:52.089000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":476.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.278739929199219,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["India"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"5Rp5sRd66S","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025","group_item_title":"Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-25T15:38:17.382000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Cambodia","Thailand"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"AyAqSdgcZL","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated","group_item_title":"World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-07T13:26:15.679000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1623.0021516068568,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":20.51490020751953,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Ilzc9UU0Cd","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement","group_item_title":"DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-27T15:19:34.976000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Democratic Republic of the Congo","Rwanda","United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"N2ANEt0qh0","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit","group_item_title":"Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-26T00:38:51.019000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Mexico"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"NNqlQzOA85","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"United States troops enter Iran","group_item_title":"United States troops enter Iran","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-03T23:27:12.271000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":381.77410546621434,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.277921676635742,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"P28cERqdnR","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS","group_item_title":"Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T03:33:25.394000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1621.3494216757506,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":20.509248733520508,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Indonesia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Q0dtSR5Cyt","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes","group_item_title":"≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-26T14:58:22.645000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Cambodia","Thailand"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"QOlCysynL5","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","group_item_title":"A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-26T13:49:42.769000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":50.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.803069114685059,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"QsA80ccuOI","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026","group_item_title":"A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-28T14:25:04.456000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":852.6186100139553,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.10056495666504,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Iran","United States","Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"SCU6CyCL5c","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces","group_item_title":"Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T21:21:00.250000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":2.3178718090057373,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Myanmar"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"St5Oq6sl5t","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)","group_item_title":"Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-08T19:00:01.976000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1877.1513360294016,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":21.32978630065918,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Saudi Arabia","China"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Z690nQ9PdN","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel","group_item_title":"A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T19:11:28.581000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":262.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.655085563659668,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ZZQ5shyNSt","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)","group_item_title":"Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T02:32:18.610000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":200.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.55753231048584,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Cambodia","Thailand"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"dl0qcyAEAd","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken","group_item_title":"Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-29T14:38:18.480000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":200.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.55753231048584,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Cambodia","Thailand"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"lyQqZNLAUC","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days","group_item_title":"Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Iran","Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"pdh6uCnnUR","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Donald Trump and Iran work out a \"deal\" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)","group_item_title":"Donald Trump and Iran work out a \"deal\" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-08T22:10:11.279000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":488.94054461762363,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.402950286865234,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qgzSyAdPZy","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025","group_item_title":"Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-25T15:39:08.893000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Cambodia","Thailand"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"u0pyU9INcC","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns","group_item_title":"Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-26T00:35:25.956000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":99.99999999999999,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.995310306549072,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Thailand"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ulUhEULzC6","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs","group_item_title":"≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[1.0,0.0],"probability":1.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-27T17:45:49.413000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cychnnIy8c","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)","group_item_title":"Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.979719,0.020281],"probability":0.979719,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-27T15:04:03.895000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":734.7979584488655,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.356216430664062,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["North Korea"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719,0.979719]},{"source":"manifold","id":"5Q0IO5hInE","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council","group_item_title":"Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.969681,0.030319],"probability":0.969681,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T02:34:30.882000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1210.8622985219408,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":18.92236328125,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681,0.969681]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6cZACNdqZt","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party","group_item_title":"Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.966997,0.033003],"probability":0.966997,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T19:18:47.031000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":670.6169311220976,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":15.907048225402832,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997,0.966997]},{"source":"manifold","id":"t5cztPUEOq","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia","group_item_title":"Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.870031,0.129969],"probability":0.870031,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T19:17:22.738000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":986.447943281827,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.846513748168945,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031,0.870031]},{"source":"manifold","id":"5hZduc6R6z","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Donald Trump remains President of USA","group_item_title":"Donald Trump remains President of USA","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.864236,0.135764],"probability":0.864236,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T17:45:05.981000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6172.473454233493,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.595678329467773,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236,0.864236]},{"source":"manifold","id":"LQyOSN5CNL","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico ","group_item_title":"Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico ","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.794479,0.205521],"probability":0.794479,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-16T23:27:21.631000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":202.683230884531,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.610397338867188,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Mexico"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479,0.794479]},{"source":"manifold","id":"OPlNuztNSU","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Hostile military action by United States against Cuba","group_item_title":"Hostile military action by United States against Cuba","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.72,0.28],"probability":0.72,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-16T02:35:24.957000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":261.79145308905436,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.651766777038574,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States","Cuba"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.72]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6udPRPRO9U","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026","group_item_title":"USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.7148,0.2852],"probability":0.7148,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-10T21:58:59.529000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":110.54312357594178,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.343036651611328,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148,0.7148]},{"source":"manifold","id":"COuISczpq6","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine","group_item_title":"Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.69,0.31],"probability":0.69,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-26T01:32:59.443000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":778.0073746809561,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.640235900878906,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.69]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ny0hUuLUSI","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire","group_item_title":"Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.659088,0.340912],"probability":0.659088,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-10T21:58:11.770000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":99.9855503335974,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.994814872741699,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Iran","Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088,0.659088]},{"source":"manifold","id":"URNzPcg29l","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire","group_item_title":"Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.64,0.36],"probability":0.64,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-08T18:56:57.622000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":415.24027153728167,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.65481185913086,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8ZO2yUsszL","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba","group_item_title":"Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.638835,0.361165],"probability":0.638835,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-13T17:36:59.064000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":425.70966227537673,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.767524719238281,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States","Cuba"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835,0.638835]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tz69AylCqy","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed","group_item_title":"At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.6,0.4],"probability":0.6,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-08T18:40:19.636000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":284.22063554877076,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.99686050415039,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6]},{"source":"manifold","id":"5hNntns2ZS","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours","group_item_title":"An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.593025,0.406975],"probability":0.593025,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1017.12644382907,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":18.005245208740234,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025,0.593025]},{"source":"manifold","id":"lURSUARSPS","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A country declares war on Israel","group_item_title":"A country declares war on Israel","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.58,0.42],"probability":0.58,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-01T19:01:57.475000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":301.4775931762019,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.247479438781738,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Ll5sORs5yp","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country","group_item_title":"A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.542507,0.457493],"probability":0.542507,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":388.46054399166735,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.355359077453613,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507,0.542507]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6580dpECUA","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Algeria becomes a member of BRICS","group_item_title":"Algeria becomes a member of BRICS","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.52,0.48],"probability":0.52,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T03:35:01.327000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":107.28926635467317,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.238581657409668,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Algeria"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52]},{"source":"manifold","id":"QQPQUsIds9","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel","group_item_title":"Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.52,0.48],"probability":0.52,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-30T17:53:05.294000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":101.2068826330532,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.036520004272461,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52]},{"source":"manifold","id":"SPUQQ2gu9l","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test","group_item_title":"North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.51,0.49],"probability":0.51,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":229.64984184227123,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.112476348876953,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["North Korea"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51]},{"source":"manifold","id":"q5pytN8gQI","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"123","group_item_title":"123","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.51,0.49],"probability":0.51,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-21T07:51:38.112000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":28.416643971612842,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":4.292433738708496,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51]},{"source":"manifold","id":"uhE9Pc2yzP","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters) ","group_item_title":"A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters) ","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.501419,0.498581],"probability":0.501419,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-26T14:58:16.137000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":761.136465955647,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.530973434448242,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419,0.501419]},{"source":"manifold","id":"L2hCAqIh0u","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran","group_item_title":"A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.454677,0.545323],"probability":0.454677,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T19:11:43.791000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":384.04903398805334,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.304393768310547,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677,0.454677]},{"source":"manifold","id":"dn8IZtzPhU","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed","group_item_title":"A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.452622,0.547378],"probability":0.452622,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":343.63084673083665,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.813352584838867,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622,0.452622]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qO2POIh5Ap","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS","group_item_title":"Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.44,0.56],"probability":0.44,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T03:34:28.850000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":80.6339070507187,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.274742126464844,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Nigeria"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44]},{"source":"manifold","id":"hc9yRPuuqO","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti","group_item_title":"At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.439422,0.560578],"probability":0.439422,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T16:00:34.332000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17.121221157313165,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":3.150585889816284,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Haiti"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422,0.439422]},{"source":"manifold","id":"dEpCtEPP6d","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)","group_item_title":"A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.424886,0.575114],"probability":0.424886,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T18:39:38.122000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":119.40616637819139,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.615850448608398,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886,0.424886]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Lg8t5ghzgy","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days","group_item_title":"A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.42,0.58],"probability":0.42,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":45.26178654077931,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.518805503845215,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Ethiopia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42]},{"source":"manifold","id":"yUAttSIlc0","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","group_item_title":"Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.42,0.58],"probability":0.42,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-08T16:04:47.666000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":66.95277696494931,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.681128025054932,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Azerbaijan","Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42]},{"source":"manifold","id":"OLdZEzQqq8","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations","group_item_title":"Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.41,0.59],"probability":0.41,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:57:41.853000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":136.76427715521385,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.107048988342285,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Turkey"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ZcEIt26yc6","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty","group_item_title":"Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.41,0.59],"probability":0.41,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":198.44049595698363,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.526543617248535,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Usn06L9OEc","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump","group_item_title":"A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.40701,0.59299],"probability":0.40701,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-28T22:52:43.295000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":236.9804705554736,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.24064826965332,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701,0.40701]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cnSIduq2q8","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel","group_item_title":"Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.405406,0.594594],"probability":0.405406,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T19:16:32.026000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":152.34752979505907,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.507635116577148,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406,0.405406]},{"source":"manifold","id":"u5StsZSspZ","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024","group_item_title":"The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.403795,0.596205],"probability":0.403795,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":129.56289472892206,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.909594535827637,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795,0.403795]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8IslC8uhgy","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov","group_item_title":"Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.4,0.6],"probability":0.4,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-28T06:03:43.077000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":212.40820904443572,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.797378540039062,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cP2Sp86Css","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace","group_item_title":"China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.39148,0.60852],"probability":0.39148,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":295.3344632366556,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.159647941589355,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148,0.39148]},{"source":"manifold","id":"SZ8pcPh9yP","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated","group_item_title":"A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.39,0.61],"probability":0.39,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-01T00:26:04.041000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":518.4444591731128,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.676170349121094,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39]},{"source":"manifold","id":"60czu8ZCcN","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Any country leaves NATO","group_item_title":"Any country leaves NATO","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.38,0.62],"probability":0.38,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T02:39:12.298000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":199.3102122751595,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.54384994506836,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38]},{"source":"manifold","id":"NAhdSNOh8L","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran","group_item_title":"North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.38,0.62],"probability":0.38,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-03T23:41:02.263000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":81.40827632304175,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.305978775024414,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["North Korea","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ALgg8IONSZ","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS ","group_item_title":"Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS ","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.377879,0.622121],"probability":0.377879,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T03:36:06.147000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":48.99999999999993,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.744761943817139,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Kazakhstan"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879,0.377879]},{"source":"manifold","id":"R9UNSq6SAq","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa","group_item_title":"Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.376195,0.623805],"probability":0.376195,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":326.9938908970901,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.597244262695312,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195,0.376195]},{"source":"manifold","id":"LUgl6zE9SZ","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe","group_item_title":"Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.3753,0.6247],"probability":0.3753,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":734.9709546543645,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.35738182067871,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["European Union"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753,0.3753]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Q69RQLyEtN","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room","group_item_title":"Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.37,0.63],"probability":0.37,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-08T01:52:50.156000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":618.8687351419894,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":15.51760482788086,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine","United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37]},{"source":"manifold","id":"dq65q8lNhl","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths","group_item_title":"USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.363578,0.636422],"probability":0.363578,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-08T18:36:58.953000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":198.27169629910247,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.523177146911621,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States","Mexico"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578,0.363578]},{"source":"manifold","id":"NpQOPQA6ly","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period","group_item_title":"An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.353062,0.646938],"probability":0.353062,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":162.02577325956844,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.740281105041504,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["India","Pakistan"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062,0.353062]},{"source":"manifold","id":"0nCqtcdghp","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)","group_item_title":"Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.346089,0.653911],"probability":0.346089,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T23:35:47.163000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":55.951859447787534,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.133469104766846,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089,0.346089]},{"source":"manifold","id":"AAESZ6tZ0Q","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela","group_item_title":"Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.342022,0.657978],"probability":0.342022,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-08T18:52:09.833000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":83.95092586801738,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.406972885131836,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Venezuela"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022,0.342022]},{"source":"manifold","id":"gEdpE6I2Lz","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Any NATO country formally declares war on another country","group_item_title":"Any NATO country formally declares war on another country","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.34,0.66],"probability":0.34,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-06T18:50:55.370000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":109.84446434819014,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.320813179016113,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34]},{"source":"manifold","id":"z8Ig92dAOZ","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","group_item_title":"Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.33,0.67],"probability":0.33,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-26T13:37:30.791000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":152.62074359496344,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.514361381530762,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Saudi Arabia","Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Sd5zyc6gdy","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon","group_item_title":"Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.320698,0.679302],"probability":0.320698,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T02:37:39.461000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":143.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.27148723602295,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698,0.320698]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cl9nctclSS","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government","group_item_title":"Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.314644,0.685356],"probability":0.314644,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":163.56747248696283,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.776309967041016,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644,0.314644]},{"source":"manifold","id":"LtzSp20hd6","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI","group_item_title":"1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.31,0.69],"probability":0.31,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-26T13:09:13.357000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":509.20855736970833,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.592073440551758,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31]},{"source":"manifold","id":"EUqcUEEuRz","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS ","group_item_title":"Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS ","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.308949,0.691051],"probability":0.308949,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T03:36:53.666000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":195.0487628780536,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.45846176147461,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Bangladesh"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949,0.308949]},{"source":"manifold","id":"89lUhsRlz0","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Mexico becomes a member of BRICS","group_item_title":"Mexico becomes a member of BRICS","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.308377,0.691623],"probability":0.308377,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T03:32:04.776000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":108.93206418674019,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.29162311553955,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Mexico"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377,0.308377]},{"source":"manifold","id":"nEAOuIts2y","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States","group_item_title":"Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.305256,0.694744],"probability":0.305256,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-29T18:58:33.717000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":249.27615787024814,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.44856071472168,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256,0.305256]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Pgch28ORQ5","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series","group_item_title":"At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.304429,0.695571],"probability":0.304429,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":41.1956621467694,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.257151126861572,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429,0.304429]},{"source":"manifold","id":"yynpCnd5gt","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Successful military coup in Venezuela","group_item_title":"Successful military coup in Venezuela","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.295776,0.704224],"probability":0.295776,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-08T18:35:22.747000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":130.6760930668141,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.940674781799316,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Venezuela"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776,0.295776]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ccpQgNSgQU","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period","group_item_title":"An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.292893,0.707107],"probability":0.292893,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-19T15:23:50.437000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":110.00074387975576,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.325793266296387,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["India","China"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893,0.292893]},{"source":"manifold","id":"S6qlug8EIA","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235","group_item_title":"The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.291392,0.708608],"probability":0.291392,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":71.42404533923838,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.884490013122559,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392,0.291392]},{"source":"manifold","id":"NI00hysRId","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test","group_item_title":"Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.290869,0.709131],"probability":0.290869,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:50:34.436000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":120.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.633554458618164,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Japan"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869,0.290869]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Eq2yEIRRu6","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"China invades Taiwan","group_item_title":"China invades Taiwan","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.28,0.72],"probability":0.28,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-28T14:37:34.494000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":253.62202388618317,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.520048141479492,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28]},{"source":"manifold","id":"y5hCE6lLyc","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Iran undergoes a regime change","group_item_title":"Iran undergoes a regime change","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.277216,0.722784],"probability":0.277216,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-01T16:23:43.465000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":242.19747094664652,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.329913139343262,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216,0.277216]},{"source":"manifold","id":"yndLdEqnO5","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","group_item_title":"Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.275392,0.724608],"probability":0.275392,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-26T13:38:01.881000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":140.85157134372483,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.215485572814941,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Syria","Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392,0.275392]},{"source":"manifold","id":"l0IECPOgyh","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","group_item_title":"Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.273722,0.726278],"probability":0.273722,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-26T13:39:14.422000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":43.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.375452518463135,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Iraq","Israel","United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722,0.273722]},{"source":"manifold","id":"thpZ5nAsCs","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Sudanese Civil War ends","group_item_title":"Sudanese Civil War ends","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.270853,0.729147],"probability":0.270853,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:56:42.193000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":96.27799473302015,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.865743160247803,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Sudan"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853,0.270853]},{"source":"manifold","id":"QE5O6yIu5n","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz","group_item_title":"A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.25931,0.74069],"probability":0.25931,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":97.00410133410901,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.891320705413818,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931,0.25931]},{"source":"manifold","id":"p02u0Auu8O","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths","group_item_title":"North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.252584,0.747416],"probability":0.252584,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-08T18:58:33.083000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":182.77614403504958,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.203857421875,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["North Korea","South Korea"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584,0.252584]},{"source":"manifold","id":"29p8shySld","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"China formally declares war on another country","group_item_title":"China formally declares war on another country","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.25,0.75],"probability":0.25,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-01T19:03:19.002000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":274.9195143601625,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.856561660766602,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25]},{"source":"manifold","id":"P06cgPuLnP","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","group_item_title":"Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.25,0.75],"probability":0.25,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-26T13:38:13.688000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":31.48895379003058,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":4.548334121704102,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Libya"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cg9LuP65Un","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Iran loses territory","group_item_title":"Iran loses territory","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.248482,0.751518],"probability":0.248482,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-08T22:07:49.439000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":135.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.0594482421875,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482,0.248482]},{"source":"manifold","id":"sqPPZQls6q","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved","group_item_title":"A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.246485,0.753515],"probability":0.246485,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T02:38:13.401000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":160.99605409600412,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.716064453125,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485,0.246485]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8thyZtp6Nz","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Egypt formally declares war on another country","group_item_title":"Egypt formally declares war on another country","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.246154,0.753846],"probability":0.246154,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-03T00:11:32.121000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":75.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.040315628051758,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Egypt"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154,0.246154]},{"source":"manifold","id":"EChhP6QEE9","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.","group_item_title":"160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.238248,0.761752],"probability":0.238248,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-01T00:21:25.817000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":190.34941646774075,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.362537384033203,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248,0.238248]},{"source":"manifold","id":"E665PudSU2","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Azerbaijani troops enter Iran","group_item_title":"Azerbaijani troops enter Iran","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.234195,0.765805],"probability":0.234195,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-28T22:46:26.203000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":220.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.938586235046387,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Azerbaijan","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195,0.234195]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ndp6LSdlUs","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil","group_item_title":"Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.23,0.77],"probability":0.23,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-08T18:31:44.583000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":216.95958931910394,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.882515907287598,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23]},{"source":"manifold","id":"5q8qtnPgsc","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS ","group_item_title":"Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS ","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.229943,0.770057],"probability":0.229943,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T03:35:40.210000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":146.64123265471744,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.364893913269043,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Venezuela"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943,0.229943]},{"source":"manifold","id":"zqzluldugR","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A country declares war on United States","group_item_title":"A country declares war on United States","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.228903,0.771097],"probability":0.228903,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-01T19:02:08.856000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":144.39091951047163,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.307388305664062,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903,0.228903]},{"source":"manifold","id":"l59SOnC5EA","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash","group_item_title":"China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.224077,0.775923],"probability":0.224077,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-26T13:37:09.065000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":70.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.820789813995361,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["China","Cambodia","Thailand"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077,0.224077]},{"source":"manifold","id":"zpCtsdIAAU","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)","group_item_title":"Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.214721,0.785279],"probability":0.214721,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T23:33:21.614000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":169.8911219990603,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.921308517456055,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721,0.214721]},{"source":"manifold","id":"S09Zddn6CO","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Israel loses territory","group_item_title":"Israel loses territory","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.2,0.8],"probability":0.2,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-08T22:07:35.858000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":100.4163467606416,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.009570121765137,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2]},{"source":"manifold","id":"td2nRAghIR","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation","group_item_title":"Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.198449,0.801551],"probability":0.198449,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-01T16:10:19.879000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":114.08518164380448,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.454049110412598,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449,0.198449]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qhZzlApPzs","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state","group_item_title":"Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.19,0.81],"probability":0.19,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-03T00:10:21.149000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":228.44310226751153,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.091058731079102,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19]},{"source":"manifold","id":"syIuhLlgqy","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"USA leaves NATO","group_item_title":"USA leaves NATO","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.19,0.81],"probability":0.19,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T02:39:03.065000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":238.264579627942,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.26276683807373,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19]},{"source":"manifold","id":"CtNS0CSUgc","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Iranian troops enter Israel","group_item_title":"Iranian troops enter Israel","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.187587,0.812413],"probability":0.187587,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-11T23:36:43.841000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":224.0797994925471,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.012845039367676,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Iran","Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587,0.187587]},{"source":"manifold","id":"syLL62Zl6q","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force","group_item_title":"United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.184065,0.815935],"probability":0.184065,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-27T17:45:07.557000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":88.89354831121597,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.596771240234375,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065,0.184065]},{"source":"manifold","id":"PuRzzz8nIc","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.","group_item_title":"A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.182135,0.817865],"probability":0.182135,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T00:47:25.137000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":133.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.004889488220215,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135,0.182135]},{"source":"manifold","id":"sQOscQhOOA","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action","group_item_title":"Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.17569,0.82431],"probability":0.17569,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-04T14:12:52.747000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":225.44523358476394,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.037452697753906,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United Arab Emirates"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569,0.17569]},{"source":"manifold","id":"g9hUlgcEsS","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor","group_item_title":"India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.174081,0.825919],"probability":0.174081,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-19T15:26:30.479000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":209.832076844261,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.748533248901367,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["India"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081,0.174081]},{"source":"manifold","id":"uzgZ0OCq9z","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy","group_item_title":"A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.163369,0.836631],"probability":0.163369,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-26T00:27:44.579000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":261.9941087368082,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.65499210357666,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369,0.163369]},{"source":"manifold","id":"l6AZcEzdhQ","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"United States formally declares war on another country","group_item_title":"United States formally declares war on another country","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.16,0.84],"probability":0.16,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-01T19:03:05.822000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":288.0868218773974,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.054073333740234,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16]},{"source":"manifold","id":"AICss5cZOt","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States","group_item_title":"The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.150666,0.849334],"probability":0.150666,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T18:46:22.612000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":220.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.938586235046387,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Denmark","United States","Greenland"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666,0.150666]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ANZA8RZdzu","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership","group_item_title":"Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.150017,0.849983],"probability":0.150017,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-29T17:50:54.097000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":176.87574478776648,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.076522827148438,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017,0.150017]},{"source":"manifold","id":"qRONdq9OlQ","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada","group_item_title":"Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.15,0.85],"probability":0.15,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-29T18:59:03.607000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":130.4338371575808,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.933928489685059,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Canada"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15]},{"source":"manifold","id":"th6UZulpNg","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic","group_item_title":"World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.15,0.85],"probability":0.15,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-06T03:21:49.535000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":122.44633243993319,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.705772399902344,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15]},{"source":"manifold","id":"gyPLC9hQzp","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)","group_item_title":"Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.147289,0.852711],"probability":0.147289,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T23:38:59.855000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":249.95189353221878,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.459742546081543,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Syria"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289,0.147289]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ACuu2InZOh","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026","group_item_title":"United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.145429,0.854571],"probability":0.145429,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-03T00:08:23.408000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":150.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.44943618774414,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States","Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429,0.145429]},{"source":"manifold","id":"LPEzAA69tE","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State","group_item_title":"Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.144557,0.855443],"probability":0.144557,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T18:45:05.247000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":153.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.523683547973633,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557,0.144557]},{"source":"manifold","id":"EQ8cpuIgIN","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"United States formally declares war on Iran","group_item_title":"United States formally declares war on Iran","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.140375,0.859625],"probability":0.140375,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-28T13:59:27.525000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":533.0277273260364,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.80643367767334,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375,0.140375]},{"source":"manifold","id":"QOgcIc5ZN0","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Argentina becomes a member of BRICS ","group_item_title":"Argentina becomes a member of BRICS ","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.135763,0.864237],"probability":0.135763,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T03:35:12.970000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":404.2920998486224,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.53438663482666,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Argentina"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763,0.135763]},{"source":"manifold","id":"p020A59RQQ","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia","group_item_title":"Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.122751,0.877249],"probability":0.122751,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":146.97893345976132,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.37346363067627,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Saudi Arabia","China","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751,0.122751]},{"source":"manifold","id":"udtcOARnCc","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","group_item_title":"Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.117267,0.882733],"probability":0.117267,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T20:37:32.277000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":490.3953488134216,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.416742324829102,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Iran","Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267,0.117267]},{"source":"manifold","id":"6sQgzhqZ59","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population","group_item_title":"At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.113976,0.886024],"probability":0.113976,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":80.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.249000549316406,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976,0.113976]},{"source":"manifold","id":"0hApZZz0S6","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom","group_item_title":"Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.11,0.89],"probability":0.11,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-27T21:03:02.177000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":434.3519552033005,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.858840942382812,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11]},{"source":"manifold","id":"dPpd2Oyc9N","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member","group_item_title":"Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.109187,0.890813],"probability":0.109187,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T15:43:08.059000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":137.4585607329964,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.12564754486084,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187,0.109187]},{"source":"manifold","id":"C00hQRpuSc","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)","group_item_title":"Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.108855,0.891145],"probability":0.108855,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T23:36:11.812000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":82.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.329695224761963,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855,0.108855]},{"source":"manifold","id":"AngOL2AyRy","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII","group_item_title":"Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.097399,0.902601],"probability":0.097399,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-25T15:42:13.445000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":173.67101626284233,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.005928039550781,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399,0.097399]},{"source":"manifold","id":"sOQyhtANCI","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus","group_item_title":"Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.082164,0.917836],"probability":0.082164,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-29T23:29:55.485000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":329.43567749090346,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.629522323608398,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Israel","Cyprus"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164,0.082164]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Sqd952LhsQ","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)","group_item_title":"Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.075018,0.924982],"probability":0.075018,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T23:41:02.184000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":320.8112257153829,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.514616966247559,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["North Korea"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018,0.075018]},{"source":"manifold","id":"hyS5ud6sZ9","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory","group_item_title":"Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.067139,0.932861],"probability":0.067139,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-17T17:49:08.992000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":407.2958911762213,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.567693710327148,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Greenland","United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139,0.067139]},{"source":"manifold","id":"n2Qdzpcq2L","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)","group_item_title":"Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.06,0.94],"probability":0.06,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-26T00:19:40.684000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":63.71405379985375,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.52734899520874,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06]},{"source":"manifold","id":"P0lsgZS9tq","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede","group_item_title":"Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.052145,0.947855],"probability":0.052145,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-25T19:21:43.011000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":100.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":7.995310306549072,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145,0.052145]},{"source":"manifold","id":"P0SP9uIRcc","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged ","group_item_title":"Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged ","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.048889,0.951111],"probability":0.048889,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-07-31T03:25:51.958000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1004.5088207545367,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.940462112426758,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889,0.048889]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ZsLIyLt609","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Israel annexes any portion of Iran","group_item_title":"Israel annexes any portion of Iran","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.042182,0.957818],"probability":0.042182,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-01T18:59:05.774000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":711.8151793905807,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.19933319091797,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Israel","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182,0.042182]},{"source":"manifold","id":"sIEcyyUS8l","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation","group_item_title":"Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.03492,0.96508],"probability":0.03492,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-04-01T16:10:04.717000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1138.0694982572982,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":18.593608856201172,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Israel"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492,0.03492]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Uc8l2pQ95O","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Any US territory comes under Canadian administration","group_item_title":"Any US territory comes under Canadian administration","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.026729,0.973271],"probability":0.026729,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-08T06:06:40.796000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":570.6258670973762,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":15.128971099853516,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States","Canada"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729,0.026729]},{"source":"manifold","id":"CQ5EpQsRdl","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Humans will extinct ","group_item_title":"Humans will extinct ","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.011303,0.988697],"probability":0.011303,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-26T13:05:32.277000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1879.4152072406787,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":21.33660316467285,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303,0.011303]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ZPOQzE9NSI","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)","group_item_title":"Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-05T23:37:18.474000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":410.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.597504615783691,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]},{"source":"manifold","id":"s9U5pUIcCA","event_id":"5uctcL2zNU","slug":null,"question":"Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas","group_item_title":"Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.0,1.0],"probability":0.0,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-08T18:34:55.451000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T17:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":367.6153265253219,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.110159873962402,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Palestinian Territories"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T15:00:32.346168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T14:59:19.165862Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027","event_title":"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]","chart_24h":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/5uctcL2zNU","as_of":"2026-06-11T15:20:18.329206Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]\" — top market at 93% probability across 151 outcomes","source_url":null}}