{"source":"manifold","id":"5x5giqjoaVbFtv8ob1FJ","ticker":null,"slug":"is-nvidia-a-bubble","title":"In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?","description":"Previously titled \"Is Nvidia a Bubble?\" \n\nThis market resolves Yes if NVDA at any point in the next five years drops below 70% of its current valuation. As of posting (before the market opens on 3/8/24) its price is sitting at $926.69. For rounding purposes, I'll define below 70% as below $650. If it trades below this level before 3/8/29 this market resolves Yes.\n\nStock splits will not affect this. In the case that NVDA splits its price I will adjust the market criteria to reflect the price that represents the 70% valuation.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-08T13:23:46.909000Z","end_date":"2029-03-09T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11452.9434535978,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.313385009765625,"liquidity":1105.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Finance"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.189079,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?","top_outcome_probability":0.189079,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-08-17T11:37:32.989143Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-17T11:37:32.989143Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/VerySeriousPoster/is-nvidia-a-bubble","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"5x5giqjoaVbFtv8ob1FJ","event_id":"5x5giqjoaVbFtv8ob1FJ","slug":"is-nvidia-a-bubble","question":"In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Previously titled \"Is Nvidia a Bubble?\" \n\nThis market resolves Yes if NVDA at any point in the next five years drops below 70% of its current valuation. As of posting (before the market opens on 3/8/24) its price is sitting at $926.69. For rounding purposes, I'll define below 70% as below $650. If it trades below this level before 3/8/29 this market resolves Yes.\n\nStock splits will not affect this. In the case that NVDA splits its price I will adjust the market criteria to reflect the price that represents the 70% valuation.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.189079,0.810921],"probability":0.189079,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-08T13:23:46.909000Z","end_date":"2029-03-09T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11452.9434535978,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.313385009765625,"liquidity":1105.0,"categories":["Finance"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T01:48:16.969511Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-17T11:34:46.199449Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/VerySeriousPoster/is-nvidia-a-bubble","event_title":"In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/5x5giqjoaVbFtv8ob1FJ","as_of":"2026-09-22T05:27:27.314581Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?\" — top market at 19% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}