{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/5xvZ2ZVhzaVIEWIUkYsr","as_of":"2026-11-03T03:05:23.933263Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an \"iPhone moment?\"\" — 90% as of 2026-10-19 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/5xvZ2ZVhzaVIEWIUkYsr","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/5-years-from-now-will-chatgpt-be-se"},"source":"manifold","id":"5xvZ2ZVhzaVIEWIUkYsr","ticker":null,"slug":"5-years-from-now-will-chatgpt-be-se","title":"5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an \"iPhone moment?\"","description":"Resolves YES, if 5 years from now, in hindsight, the consensus seems to be that the release of ChatGPT was as significant an event in signalling a coming sea change in technology and society as the release of the original iPhone.\n\nThis will be greatly aided in resolution if there's a bunch of press articles saying as much, otherwise it will be based on my own subjective opinion, aided by whatever polls I can look at and whatever evidence is provided in the comments.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FQCnkrDjbf2.png?alt=media&token=cf833c79-13b4-4ee8-9f24-f1bf28ef7267","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-27T05:41:59.631000Z","end_date":"2028-03-28T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":53641.45422979242,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":43.60887908935547,"liquidity":1655.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.904992,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an \"iPhone moment?\"","top_outcome_probability":0.904992,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-19T14:04:25.542165Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-19T14:04:25.542165Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/5-years-from-now-will-chatgpt-be-se","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"5xvZ2ZVhzaVIEWIUkYsr","event_id":"5xvZ2ZVhzaVIEWIUkYsr","slug":"5-years-from-now-will-chatgpt-be-se","question":"5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an \"iPhone moment?\"","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves YES, if 5 years from now, in hindsight, the consensus seems to be that the release of ChatGPT was as significant an event in signalling a coming sea change in technology and society as the release of the original iPhone.\n\nThis will be greatly aided in resolution if there's a bunch of press articles saying as much, otherwise it will be based on my own subjective opinion, aided by whatever polls I can look at and whatever evidence is provided in the comments.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FQCnkrDjbf2.png?alt=media&token=cf833c79-13b4-4ee8-9f24-f1bf28ef7267","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.904992,0.095008],"probability":0.904992,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-03-27T05:41:59.631000Z","end_date":"2028-03-28T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":53641.45422979242,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":43.60887908935547,"liquidity":1655.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-19T14:01:59.087971Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-19T14:01:59.087971Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/5-years-from-now-will-chatgpt-be-se","event_title":"5 years from now, will ChatGPT be seen as an \"iPhone moment?\"","chart_24h":null}]}