{"source":"manifold","id":"6PuZLQhqn5","ticker":null,"slug":"hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026-polymar","title":"Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]","description":"Resolution criteria\n\nFollows the identical Polymarket resolution (https://polymarket.com/event/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a \"pandemic\" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a \"pandemic.\" A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nBackground\n\nHantaviruses are a family of viruses spread mainly by rodents. In humans, they can cause Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS). While Hantaviruses can cause severe, life-threatening disease, transmission is typically through contact with infected rodent excreta, not via human-to-human transmission. Historically, human-to-human transmission of Hantavirus is extremely rare, making the potential for a global pandemic fundamentally different from respiratory viruses like influenza or SARS-CoV-2.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-04T18:43:37.193000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":340386.67382061627,"volume_24hr":13.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.796480655670166,"normalized_volume":60.8880615234375,"liquidity":11500.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.017712,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]","top_outcome_probability":0.017712,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-21T12:58:15.802687Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T12:58:15.802687Z","added_at":"2026-05-07T04:48:30.772706Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/bagofsprite/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026-polymar","chart_24h":[0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"6PuZLQhqn5","event_id":"6PuZLQhqn5","slug":"hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026-polymar","question":"Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolution criteria\n\nFollows the identical Polymarket resolution (https://polymarket.com/event/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a \"pandemic\" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a \"pandemic.\" A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nBackground\n\nHantaviruses are a family of viruses spread mainly by rodents. In humans, they can cause Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS). While Hantaviruses can cause severe, life-threatening disease, transmission is typically through contact with infected rodent excreta, not via human-to-human transmission. Historically, human-to-human transmission of Hantavirus is extremely rare, making the potential for a global pandemic fundamentally different from respiratory viruses like influenza or SARS-CoV-2.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.017712,0.982288],"probability":0.017712,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-05-04T18:43:37.193000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":340386.67382061627,"volume_24hr":13.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":4.796480655670166,"normalized_volume":60.8880615234375,"liquidity":11500.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-21T12:56:21.728826Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-21T12:56:21.728826Z","added_at":"2026-05-07T04:48:30.772706Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/bagofsprite/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026-polymar","event_title":"Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]","chart_24h":[0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712,0.017712]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/6PuZLQhqn5","as_of":"2026-06-21T13:12:47.834102Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]\" — top market at 2% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}