{"source":"manifold","id":"6RsL68sAOz","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-us-withdraw-from-nato-at-a","title":"Will the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?","description":"Will resolve YES if the US Government formally withdraws from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) while Donald J. Trump is acting US President.\n\nResolution will NOT be dependent on A 2/3 Senate super majority or act of Congress if Trump unilaterally withdraws and the Federal courts do not declare such withdrawal unlawful.\n\nUpdate 2025-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Notice of Denunciation Clarification:\n\nSufficient Action: The market will resolve YES if the US sends a formal notice of denunciation to NATO.\n\nWaiting Period Irrelevant: The one-year waiting period between the notice and actual withdrawal is not required for a YES outcome.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-03-01T03:14:02.221000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T15:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7358.605388496558,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.256431579589844,"liquidity":115.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.2,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?","top_outcome_probability":0.2,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-09-15T11:04:06.816144Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T11:04:06.816144Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/TrustMe/will-the-us-withdraw-from-nato-at-a","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"6RsL68sAOz","event_id":"6RsL68sAOz","slug":"will-the-us-withdraw-from-nato-at-a","question":"Will the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Will resolve YES if the US Government formally withdraws from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) while Donald J. Trump is acting US President.\n\nResolution will NOT be dependent on A 2/3 Senate super majority or act of Congress if Trump unilaterally withdraws and the Federal courts do not declare such withdrawal unlawful.\n\nUpdate 2025-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Notice of Denunciation Clarification:\n\nSufficient Action: The market will resolve YES if the US sends a formal notice of denunciation to NATO.\n\nWaiting Period Irrelevant: The one-year waiting period between the notice and actual withdrawal is not required for a YES outcome.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.2,0.8],"probability":0.2,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-03-01T03:14:02.221000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T15:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7358.605388496558,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.256431579589844,"liquidity":115.0,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-15T11:03:10.262325Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T11:03:10.262325Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/TrustMe/will-the-us-withdraw-from-nato-at-a","event_title":"Will the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/6RsL68sAOz","as_of":"2026-10-01T23:18:36.995334Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?\" — top market at 20% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}