{"source":"manifold","id":"6t5g9tqzs9","ticker":null,"slug":"gpt6-released-in-2026","title":"GPT-6 released in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI publicly announces the release of a model explicitly named GPT-6 during the calendar year of  2026\n\nA release is defined as:\n\nA public launch or general availability announcement of a model explicitly named GPT-6 by OpenAI.\n\nAvailability of the model via API, ChatGPT, or any other official OpenAI product or platform.\n\nIf OpenAI releases a model under a different name (e.g., GPT-5.5, GPT-Next, or any unnamed model), this market will not resolve to “Yes” unless the model is clearly and officially identified by OpenAI as GPT-6.\n\nPreviews, demos, leaks, research papers, or internal/private access without an official public release do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources will be OpenAI’s official blog, press releases, or verified social media accounts. If needed, a consensus of credible reporting from major news or technology media may be used for confirmation.\n\nIf no qualifying release is announced during 2026, the market will resolve to “No”.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-07T23:36:00.006000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7963.894088318104,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.28391456604004,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["gpt5-speculation","technology-default","ai","gpt5","gpt6"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.698934,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"GPT-6 released in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.698934,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-65.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-14T06:27:35.643060Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-14T06:27:35.643060Z","added_at":"2026-06-12T16:31:20.901407Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/gpt6-released-in-2026","chart_24h":[0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"6t5g9tqzs9","event_id":"6t5g9tqzs9","slug":"gpt6-released-in-2026","question":"GPT-6 released in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI publicly announces the release of a model explicitly named GPT-6 during the calendar year of  2026\n\nA release is defined as:\n\nA public launch or general availability announcement of a model explicitly named GPT-6 by OpenAI.\n\nAvailability of the model via API, ChatGPT, or any other official OpenAI product or platform.\n\nIf OpenAI releases a model under a different name (e.g., GPT-5.5, GPT-Next, or any unnamed model), this market will not resolve to “Yes” unless the model is clearly and officially identified by OpenAI as GPT-6.\n\nPreviews, demos, leaks, research papers, or internal/private access without an official public release do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources will be OpenAI’s official blog, press releases, or verified social media accounts. If needed, a consensus of credible reporting from major news or technology media may be used for confirmation.\n\nIf no qualifying release is announced during 2026, the market will resolve to “No”.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.698934,0.301066],"probability":0.698934,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-07T23:36:00.006000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7963.894088318104,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-65.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.28391456604004,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-14T06:27:28.876044Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-14T06:27:28.876044Z","added_at":"2026-06-12T16:31:20.901407Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/gpt6-released-in-2026","event_title":"GPT-6 released in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934,0.698934]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/6t5g9tqzs9","as_of":"2026-06-14T06:46:02.977977Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"GPT-6 released in 2026?\" — top market at 70% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}