{"source":"manifold","id":"6wmVGrEwDPfVdQGoDmGO","ticker":null,"slug":"if-china-invaded-taiwan-will-there","title":"If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030","description":"Resolves Yes if US directly uses it's military force against China\n\nResolves No otherwise\n\nResolves N/A if by close date China has not invaded Taiwan\n\n\"Invasion\" is any attempt to establish a ground presence on the island of Taiwan with military force. \n\nIf China attempted a landing on Taiwan but was entirely thwarted by a US attack this would still resolve Yes\n\n","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FQ9RwQup4gj.png?alt=media&token=b8329fe1-6706-4c9d-971f-9dcdcef48b5c","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-09T08:12:57.135000Z","end_date":"2030-12-31T12:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6494.828910308285,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.931678771972656,"liquidity":2140.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.402303,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030","top_outcome_probability":0.402303,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NGK/if-china-invaded-taiwan-will-there","chart_24h":[0.402303,0.402303],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"6wmVGrEwDPfVdQGoDmGO","event_id":"6wmVGrEwDPfVdQGoDmGO","slug":"if-china-invaded-taiwan-will-there","question":"If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves Yes if US directly uses it's military force against China\n\nResolves No otherwise\n\nResolves N/A if by close date China has not invaded Taiwan\n\n\"Invasion\" is any attempt to establish a ground presence on the island of Taiwan with military force. \n\nIf China attempted a landing on Taiwan but was entirely thwarted by a US attack this would still resolve Yes\n\n","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FQ9RwQup4gj.png?alt=media&token=b8329fe1-6706-4c9d-971f-9dcdcef48b5c","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.402303,0.597697],"probability":0.402303,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-09T08:12:57.135000Z","end_date":"2030-12-31T12:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6494.828910308285,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.931678771972656,"liquidity":2140.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["China","Taiwan","United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:28:43.497510Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NGK/if-china-invaded-taiwan-will-there","event_title":"If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030","chart_24h":[0.402303,0.402303]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/6wmVGrEwDPfVdQGoDmGO","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:38:05.591920Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030\" — top market at 40% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}