{"source":"manifold","id":"78Lr3azRBQh1HFWN4rpb","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-front-line-in-ukraine-chan-7fde06cf4934","title":"Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?","description":"Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time as a result of military action, before the conflict concludes with a peace deal or long-term armistice? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.\n\nPossible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).\n\nThis explicitly excludes any negotiated or otherwise unforced territorial changes (e.g. if Russia voluntarily withdraws from Ukrainian territory).\n\nThe resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases.\n\nUPD: For more on resolution criteria, see my comment on why I resolved the 2024 market as \"no\".\n\nSee also:\n\n[markets]Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):\n\nThe Kursk incursion does not count as a significant territorial change, as it does not constitute major territorial gains or capture of significant cities/objects\n\nUpdate 2025-15-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:\n\nTerritorial changes are assessed based on the situation as of the market creation date (September 2023).","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-09-15T17:42:37.547000Z","end_date":"2040-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6668.645332664202,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.105932235717773,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.602016,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?","top_outcome_probability":0.602016,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/PS/will-the-front-line-in-ukraine-chan-7fde06cf4934","chart_24h":[0.602016,0.602016],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"78Lr3azRBQh1HFWN4rpb","event_id":"78Lr3azRBQh1HFWN4rpb","slug":"will-the-front-line-in-ukraine-chan-7fde06cf4934","question":"Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time as a result of military action, before the conflict concludes with a peace deal or long-term armistice? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.\n\nPossible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).\n\nThis explicitly excludes any negotiated or otherwise unforced territorial changes (e.g. if Russia voluntarily withdraws from Ukrainian territory).\n\nThe resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases.\n\nUPD: For more on resolution criteria, see my comment on why I resolved the 2024 market as \"no\".\n\nSee also:\n\n[markets]Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):\n\nThe Kursk incursion does not count as a significant territorial change, as it does not constitute major territorial gains or capture of significant cities/objects\n\nUpdate 2025-15-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:\n\nTerritorial changes are assessed based on the situation as of the market creation date (September 2023).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.602016,0.397984],"probability":0.602016,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-09-15T17:42:37.547000Z","end_date":"2040-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6668.645332664202,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.105932235717773,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/PS/will-the-front-line-in-ukraine-chan-7fde06cf4934","event_title":"Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?","chart_24h":[0.602016,0.602016]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/78Lr3azRBQh1HFWN4rpb","as_of":"2026-06-10T13:13:41.414014Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?\" — top market at 60% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}